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Agayan operates a sheep farm situated near the borders of Armenia and Turkey, roughly 135 kilometers (83 miles) from the bustling capital city, Tbilisi. Here, numerous demonstrators rallied in support of joining the European Union ahead of the elections.
However, in the mountainous region of Javakheti, Agayan’s primary concern is stability over global ambitions. A few years past, a pack of wolves infiltrated his barn and decimated half of his sheep, placing the livelihoods of multiple families at risk. To Agayan, the EU is a distant goal; he prioritizes the influence of local leaders who directly affect small farmers like himself.
He observes, “Most individuals” will back the regional lawmaker from Georgian Dream. He reflects on the idea that “An old dog is always better than a new one,” implying that a change in governance might introduce unpredictable elements.
The election is seen by many in this South Caucasus nation, which has a population of 3.7 million, as potentially life-changing. It represents a significant decision regarding the possibility of EU membership and pits a coalition of opposition parties against Georgian Dream, which has increasingly imposed authoritarian measures since coming into power in 2012.
Polls reveal that around 80% of Georgians support EU membership, and the constitution mandates that leaders actively pursue incorporation into both the EU and NATO. However, in July, in a controversial move, Brussels indefinitely suspended Georgia’s bid for EU inclusion after the ruling party instituted a “foreign influence law.” This legislation requires media outlets and non-governmental organizations that receive over 20% of their funding from abroad to register as operating in the interests of a foreign entity.
Supporters of Georgian Dream state that the law is essential to counteract harmful foreign influences trying to cause instability. Conversely, many journalists and activists believe its true aim is to marginalize them and suppress open discussion before the crucial election.
Georgia has navigated a complicated relationship with Russia throughout its history. For most of the previous century, it operated under Moscow’s rule until gaining independence in 1991 after the Soviet Union fell apart. The country lost a brief conflict with Russia in 2008, which continues to occupy portions of Georgian territory.
Upon ascending to power in 2012, Georgian Dream pledged to restore civil liberties and improve relations with Moscow while promising to pursue EU membership—a position that comforted many Georgians wary of Russian aggression.
But instead of moving closer to the West, Georgian Dream made a series of decisions that have drawn criticism, including passing the foreign influence law despite widespread protests, abstaining from international sanctions against Russia, and curtailing rights for LGBTQ+ individuals.
Analyst Natia Seskuria posits that the party’s authoritarian turn cannot solely be attributed to Russian influence, suggesting instead that the motivation for the foreign influence law is to maintain power. Georgian Dream appears to have taken notes from the Kremlin’s methods to silence dissent.
Some local business leaders also have vested interests in the party’s continued governance, having benefited economically during its rule. At a recent pro-government event, attendees included relatives of individuals awarded prominent positions within the rail and infrastructure sectors.
Zurab Chiaberashvili, foreign policy secretary of the opposition United National Movement, described Georgian Dream’s actions as a “hybrid war” aimed at its citizens.
As the elections drew near, campaign advertisements for the ruling party claimed a “Global War Party” was working to influence the EU and the U.S., widen the conflict in Ukraine, and displace Georgian Dream from power. Billboards contrasted dark depictions of destruction in Ukraine with vibrant imagery of life in Georgia, captioned with “Say no to war — choose peace.”
Concerns about the prospect of conflict resonate deeply among the population. Nairik Ukanyan, who operates a store in the ethnically Armenian majority region of Javakheti, expressed apprehension, stating, “Everyone is afraid of war.” He, like many, communicates primarily in Armenian and Russian, with limited proficiency in Georgian.
Ukanyan also noted that he gathers information from Russian television, which portrays friendly relations between Georgia and Russia. He questioned, “Why do we need a relationship with Europe?” Agayan shared a similar sentiment, asserting, “Even if I had 20 children, I would not send them to Europe.”
He expressed that the West is fearful of Russia and desires to see everyone diverge from it. Georgian Dream is noted for maintaining a tight control over its political base. Agayan alleged that some officials provided about $110 to local villagers to sway their support for the ruling party.
Yet there are dissenting voices among residents. Gayane Batirova, a single mother aged 41, divulged her financial struggles, stating her family historically supported Georgian Dream but she would not vote for the party again due to its failure to enhance their circumstances.
Attempts to reach Georgian Dream’s local office in Javakheti yielded no responses, as staff were reportedly unavailable for interviews. Signs were also prominently displayed in Russian in the town of Ninotsminda, reinforcing the ongoing divide.
Meanwhile, in Tbilisi, Georgian Dream lawmaker Maka Bochorishvili emphasized that the party’s primary aim is European integration rooted in “peace and dignity,” which echoes its conservative values. She insisted, “At stake is peace and stability in this country.”
Nonetheless, the party’s increasing inclination towards enacting Russian-style laws has impacted its support in Western circles, leading to the suspension of EU membership negotiations and the halt of the U.K.’s security dialogues with Georgia, primarily due to concerns around democratic backsliding.
Many Georgians worry that if Georgian Dream retains control, it might extinguish the nation’s aspirations for EU integration altogether. “We are at a crossroads—either becoming a Russian puppet state or being independent and free,” said Tina Bezhanidze, 26, who participated in a pro-EU rally in Tbilisi.
Even within the remote Javakheti, support for Russian alignment is not universally shared. Eghsam Manasyan, who was busy harvesting potatoes, indicated a desire for more job opportunities, insisting, “Of course we need the European Union.”
She and her husband Artur expressed a longing for greater employment in the region, recalling their historical ties with Russia and the Soviet Union. “We need to look everywhere,” he concluded. “We still don’t really know what Europe is.”
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