A whopping 30 million voters have already cast their ballots for the 2024 election, either through in-person early voting or mail-in ballots, according to tracking data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Record-Breaking Early Voting in Battleground States
The battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia are smashing early voting records! Both states saw massive voter turnout on their first day of early voting last week, setting the stage for a heated election.
Trump Campaign Confident Despite 2020 Struggles
The Trump campaign is cautiously optimistic, seeing positive signs in early voting data from seven critical battleground states. This is a far cry from 2020 when Republicans lagged behind Democrats in early voting, largely due to former President Trump’s criticism of absentee and mail-in ballots as prone to fraud.
Mixed Signals for Kamala Harris
Despite strong turnout, there may be trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris. Data shows that about 45% of early voters are Democrats, 34% are Republicans, and 22% are unaffiliated. With many voters identifying as independents, the Harris campaign faces a tight race with little time to sway undecided voters.
Early Voting Surges in Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, a key “blue wall” state, voter registration and absentee ballot requests show strength for the Trump campaign compared to past elections. Both parties now have a clearer view of Pennsylvania’s crucial voter base, following the close of registration.
Trump’s Surge in North Carolina
North Carolina, which Trump narrowly won in 2020, is showing a strong early performance for the GOP. The Trump campaign claims it’s outperforming in absentee and in-person early voting compared to previous years. The same trend is being reported in Nevada, with early voting showing positive results for Trump in Clark County, a Democratic stronghold.
Harris Holds Steady Optimism
Meanwhile, Harris remains upbeat, citing record early turnout in Georgia and North Carolina, which have traditionally leaned Democratic in early voting. She’s celebrating the high turnout but acknowledges that more data is needed to predict the outcome.
Georgia’s Early Voting Breakdown
In Georgia, 1.8 million votes have been cast so far. Despite the excitement, political experts note that Black voter turnout is slightly lower than needed for Harris to clinch the state. University of Georgia’s Charles Bullock says Harris needs at least 30% Black voter turnout and over 88% support from this demographic to match Biden’s 2020 success.
North Carolina: A Fierce Battle!
North Carolina’s early voting is heating up, with 1.4 million ballots already cast. Democrats lead with 35%, closely followed by Republicans at 34%. Despite the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, voter turnout remains strong, as many voters seek to escape the fatigue of a relentless campaign season.
Nevada: Republicans Lead Early Voting for the First Time Since 2004
In a shocking turn, Nevada Republicans are leading early voting, something not seen since 2004. Experts warn this could spell serious trouble for Harris in a state that Democrats have historically dominated.
Pennsylvania and Arizona: Battleground Pressure Mounts
In Pennsylvania, 1 million absentee ballots have been returned, with Democrats holding a significant edge. However, voter registration trends are signaling an erosion of the Democratic advantage in this critical state.
Meanwhile, Arizona remains hard to predict. Although Republicans lead in early voting, the state’s large independent voter base makes it difficult to forecast the final outcome. Arizona has 4.3 million active registered voters, but the competition is fierce, with both campaigns fighting for every vote.
Michigan and Wisconsin: The Final Push
In Michigan, early voting has ramped up, with absentee ballots making up the bulk of the early turnout. The Harris campaign is confident that strong suburban support will boost her chances in this must-win state.
In Wisconsin, early voting begins Tuesday. Absentee ballots are pouring in, but it’s still anyone’s game as the state gears up for one of the tightest races in the country.
