New surveys from seven key swing states ahead of the November election offer promising signs for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.
Polling from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows a pathway for Trump to surpass the 270 electoral votes required to win, giving him several routes back to the presidency — if these numbers are reflected at the ballot box.
In Emerson College’s latest estimates, Trump leads in four of these states, though the margins are slim.
In Arizona, Trump holds a 49% to 47% edge over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Arizona is unique among these battlegrounds as the only state where Trump leads Harris among women, 50% to 47%, suggesting dissatisfaction with Harris’s handling of key issues, particularly her role as border czar.
Margins remain razor-thin
In Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Trump holds razor-thin leads of 49% to 48%, adding up to 51 electoral votes that could help tilt the race in his favor.
The data, however, also shows tight competition in Michigan and Wisconsin, with both candidates locked at 49% each. Union household voters in these states seem to lean toward Harris, with a 10-point advantage in Michigan and a 26-point lead in Wisconsin, while Trump holds a 53% to 43% edge among union households in Pennsylvania.
Harris’s only lead is in Nevada, but by just a single point, 48% to 47%.
Although the race remains close, with minimal changes in polling data over the past month, these tight margins suggest that every vote will count in deciding the outcome.
Downballot races don’t appear as favorable for Republicans. In Arizona, Kari Lake is trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego by 7 points in the Senate race. Michigan’s Mike Rogers is 5 points behind in his bid to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Other GOP candidates face similar struggles in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. The exception is Pennsylvania, where Dave McCormick is closing the gap on Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, cutting his deficit from 5 points to just 2.
