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The potential significance of Tuesday’s vice presidential debate could exceed historical expectations

Tim Walz and JD Vance are set to engage in their first and only debate, potentially reshaping the political arena. The traditional role of vice presidential picks as attack dogs has shifted since former President Donald Trump disrupted political norms. Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, gained national attention by labeling rival Republicans as “weird.” Vance, the Republican junior senator from Ohio, has criticized Vice President Kamala Harris’s party on immigration, even spreading a false story about Haitian immigrants in Ohio that Trump later mentioned during his debate with Harris.

The vice president’s role involves presiding over the Senate and breaking ties, a responsibility Harris has exercised 33 times. The officeholder also presides over the ceremonial certification of electoral results, as Vice President Mike Pence did even after the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. The main duty of the vice president is to be prepared to assume the presidency in case of a president’s incapacity. Nine vice presidents have taken over following a president’s death or departure from office, with Gerald Ford being the last in 1974 when Richard Nixon resigned.

Vice presidential historian Joel K. Goldstein highlighted the importance of succession, especially in light of recent assassination attempts. However, many voters view vice presidential nominees as extensions of the presidential candidates rather than potential future presidents. Memorable vice presidential debates include the 1992 exchange involving Adm. James Stockdale, the 2008 showdown between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, and the 1988 encounter between Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle.

In the 2020 debate, Harris faced off against Mike Pence, delivering the memorable line “I’m speaking” when interrupted by the vice president. The upcoming debate between Walz and Vance may play a crucial role in the current campaign, given the tight race in swing states. While historical analysis suggests that the choice of a running mate has little impact on Election Day results, this year could prove different. The last debate before the election offers a final opportunity for voters to witness the candidates directly confront each other.

Mark P. Jones, a political science professor, believes that voters predominantly base their decision on the presidential nominee rather than the running mate. However, in a closely contested race, the running mate’s performance in the debate could potentially influence outcomes. Both Walz and Vance must navigate the debate carefully to avoid significant mistakes that could sway voters. While the chances of a game-changing error are slim, Jones acknowledges that one misstep could have significant consequences.

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