Israel and Hezbollah are facing international pressure to consider a cease-fire in order to prevent escalating into full-scale war, given the current conflict dynamics. Hezbollah recently suffered significant losses from an attack on its members through personal devices, while Israel has successfully targeted key Hezbollah commanders in Beirut and conducted airstrikes across Lebanon resulting in numerous casualties. Despite Israel’s military advantage, achieving its goal of stopping Hezbollah’s rocket attacks solely with air power seems unlikely, with a possible ground invasion presenting high risks.
Yossi Yehoshua, a military affairs correspondent, noted that Hezbollah still possesses significant untapped capabilities, cautioning against overconfidence in Israel’s decision-makers. The U.S. and its allies have proposed a 21-day cease-fire to create room for diplomacy, aiming to de-escalate the situation. However, any agreement would necessitate both sides to make concessions, a decision that might prove challenging.
Hezbollah, in solidarity with Hamas, began launching attacks on Israel following Hamas’ actions in Gaza, with both groups having Iran’s support. The ongoing conflict has resulted in casualties and forced evacuations on both sides of the border. Hezbollah has linked halting its attacks to Gaza with the condition of a cease-fire. Negotiations led by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt for Gaza have faced setbacks, potentially impacting Hamas’ willingness to reach an agreement if a wider war involving Iran and Hezbollah against Israel erupts.
Stopping rocket attacks without tangible gains for Palestinians could be seen as a defeat for Hezbollah. Israel, on the other hand, might view a cease-fire in Gaza as rewarding Hezbollah’s actions, making any deal challenging. Israel’s main objectives in Lebanon are the safe return of evacuated residents and preventing further attacks. A temporary cease-fire might not suffice, as Israelis may be hesitant to return without guarantees.
Previous U.N. resolutions aimed at peace after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war have not been fully realized, prompting Israel to seek additional assurances in any new cease-fire agreement. Netanyahu faces opposition from hardline coalition partners advocating for a harsh stance against Hezbollah, potentially complicating negotiations. While opposition parties may support a cease-fire, disagreement within Netanyahu’s government could lead to its collapse, affecting the political landscape significantly.
Iran, a key player in supporting Hezbollah, has yet to take a clear stance on a cease-fire. While Iran does not desire a broader conflict that could draw in the U.S., it cannot overlook Hezbollah’s dismantling. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent remarks at the U.N. General Assembly highlighted concerns over Israel’s actions in Lebanon. The evolving situation presents challenges for all parties involved, necessitating careful navigation to prevent further escalation.