Election winner Kamala Harris?
Although the U.S. election is still two months away (November 5), one expert already believes he knows the outcome. Allan Lichtman, a renowned 77-year-old professor from American University, has correctly predicted nearly every U.S. election for the past 40 years, including Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 and his loss to Joe Biden in 2020.
Lichtman’s predictions aren’t based on polling data. Instead, in 1981, he and geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok developed a model called the “13 Keys to the White House.” The system assesses various factors, assigning points to either the incumbent or challenger depending on whether the answer to each of 13 questions is “true” or “false.” In 2024, this framework pits Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.
Here’s a breakdown:
- Midterm congressional gains: False. While the Democrats fared better than expected in 2022, they lost control of the House of Representatives.
- No primary challenges: True. With Biden as the initial candidate, the primaries were a formality, making Harris the chosen nominee.
- Incumbent running for re-election: False. The switch from Biden to Harris gives Trump an advantage.
- No third-party candidate: True. RFK Jr. has exited the race.
- Short-term economy: True. Despite dissatisfaction, the U.S. economy is growing and has avoided a recession.
- Long-term economic trends: True. Economic conditions have remained steady or improved over the past two terms.
- Policy changes: True. Rejoining the Paris climate accord, passing laws on infrastructure, inflation, and climate change are considered significant.
- No social unrest: True, though Lichtman acknowledges that this could still change before the election.
- No major White House scandal: True. Despite Republican efforts, no significant scandals have stuck to Biden or Harris.
- Foreign policy failure: Unclear until election day.
- Foreign policy success: Also undetermined, but Lichtman believes even two negative results here won’t sway the outcome for Trump.
- Charisma of the incumbent candidate: False. Harris is not considered highly charismatic by many voters.
- Uncharismatic challenger: True. While Trump has a passionate base, Lichtman argues that most voters are not deeply impressed by him.
Final tally: Harris receives eight “keys,” while Trump gets just three, with two remaining undecided.
Lichtman concludes that Trump has little control over the outcome within this system. Nonetheless, the former president can only hope that the expert’s prediction falters this time.
