The momentum continues to build for Vice President Harris.
Not only has she closed the gap in public polls across swing states in her presidential campaign, but she has also taken narrow leads in three pivotal states—enough to secure the necessary electoral votes to win the White House, according to polling averages.
However, it’s important to note that these leads are mostly within the surveys’ margins of error, and Democratic pollsters caution that polling inaccuracies could overestimate Harris’s support. Their message, echoed by many speakers at last week’s Democratic convention, is clear: this race is tight, and overconfidence could be dangerous.
NPR’s analysis now categorizes all seven of the most closely watched swing states as toss-ups, shifting all Sun Belt states from Lean Republican to a more competitive status. This analysis considers not just polling data, but also historical trends and insights from campaign and party strategists.
In a map based solely on polls, Harris is now at exactly 270 electoral votes—the number required to win.
NPR’s state-by-state analysis relies on an average of surveys aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and The Hill/DDHQ. States where a candidate leads by 1 percentage point or more in the average are categorized as either red or blue, while those with margins tighter than 1 point are marked as pure toss-ups.
Harris has now established a consistent, albeit narrow, lead in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. She holds an average lead of about 3 points in Wisconsin and Michigan, but only 1 point in Pennsylvania, where both campaigns are heavily focused.
In the Sun Belt, former President Donald Trump maintains an almost 2-point lead in Georgia, with margins within 1 point in North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona.
With the race this close, neither campaign can afford to be complacent, especially with debates looming and early voting just weeks away.
