Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah engaged in a significant exchange of fire on Sunday following months of escalating tensions, prompting concerns of a potential all-out war involving the United States, Iran, and other militant groups in the region.
By mid-morning, the firing had ceased with both sides claiming to have targeted military objectives only. Reports from Lebanon stated that three individuals were killed in Israeli strikes while no casualties were reported from the Israeli side. The situation remained tense following the hostilities.
The events on Sunday saw Israel deploying around 100 warplanes to conduct airstrikes on numerous rocket launchers in southern Lebanon, aiming to prevent a planned Hezbollah attack. In response, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones targeting military bases and missile defense positions in northern Israel and the Golan Heights.
Hezbollah stated that the attack was a preliminary retaliation for the targeted killing of one of its founding members and senior commanders, Fouad Shukur, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut the previous month. The group claimed the first phase of the attack had been successfully carried out, denying Israel’s assertions of thwarting the assault. The situation led to the death of three individuals in Lebanon, including a member of the Hezbollah-allied Amal group.
The exchange of fire, though intense, did not immediately spark a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, however, tensions remained high in the region. The conflict between the two parties escalated further as Hezbollah began launching rockets and drones at Israel following Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel on October 7. The alliance between Hezbollah and Hamas, both supported by Iran, has been a significant factor in the ongoing strife.
In previous exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah since October, over 500 individuals in Lebanon, primarily fighters from Hezbollah and other armed groups, along with over 100 civilians, have lost their lives. In northern Israel, strikes from Lebanon resulted in the deaths of 23 soldiers and 26 civilians, while displacing tens of thousands of people in border areas on both sides.
Efforts are in place to alleviate the situation, with Israel aiming to restore calm along its borders to allow citizens to return home. While seeking diplomatic solutions through mediators, Israel has emphasized its readiness to use force if necessary. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has stated its reluctance for a broader conflict but affirmed its readiness for such a scenario.
In case of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the repercussions are anticipated to be severe, surpassing the destruction witnessed during their month-long war in 2006. Hezbollah’s substantial arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets capable of reaching all parts of Israel, alongside advancements in drones and precision-guided missiles, suggests a far more damaging confrontation than the previous conflict.
An escalation to a major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could potentially draw in the United States and Iran, leading to a broader regional showdown. With Iran supporting Hezbollah and other militant groups in the Middle East, and the United States standing firmly behind Israel, the situation remains fragile and prone to further escalation.
Efforts to broker a cease-fire in Gaza and ease tensions in the region by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar remain ongoing. While Hezbollah has indicated willingness to cease attacks along the border if a Gaza cease-fire is achieved, uncertainties persist regarding potential retaliatory actions by Hezbollah and Iran in response to recent escalations. Diplomatic negotiations continue with hopes of calming the situation and preventing a larger conflict from erupting.
