In the biparty political system, third-party candidates mostly have little impact. However,
in every other presidential election cycle, an outsider can have a decisive impact. This
was the story of George Bush Sr., who lost the presidency in 1992 after only one term.
Texas billionaire Ross Perot did not win a single state but received 18.97 percent of the
overall popular vote, enough to take votes away from Bush and hand the election to
Democratic newcomer Bill Clinton.
Now, in the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump,
another third-party candidate could have a significant impact, even though the polls
show a complex picture of which of the two candidates should worry more. Robert F.
Kennedy Jr., son of the Democrat running for the White House in 1968, is aiming for the
Oval Office on a platform that includes controversial views, particularly regarding Covid
vaccines.
It seems that the controversial candidate with the famous name, who has been snubbed
by the entire Kennedy clan (which supports Biden), is probably taking away more votes
from Trump. Recent polls show that in one scenario where Biden and Trump are tied at
47%, adding RFK Jr. to the mix results in a dead even 37% to 37%. However, when
asked to make a choice, voters broke 47% – 29% in favor of Trump. This suggests there
are more potential Trump voters in the RFK camp than Biden supporters, which could
ultimately sway the election toward Biden.
No wonder Trump, a candidate with sharp political instincts, is attacking the third-party
outlier. The attacks reflect how nervous the Republicans have become. He has criticized
RFK Jr. as a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal, as he recently posted on the Truth
Social app, arguing that a vote for him would be a wasted protest vote that could swing
either way, it would only work against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true
a story about him.
Why is RFK Jr. so polarizing, as recent polls show him with the support of 13% of likely
voters? Most Americans are frustrated by the new Biden-Trump duel for the White
House, particularly given the age of both candidates, with Biden at 82 on election day
and Trump at 78. Some of RFK Jr.’s populism resonates in certain segments of the
population, especially concerning memories of overreactions during the Covid
Pandemic and debates regarding the safety of quickly developed vaccines. RFK Jr. has
also spread misinformation about other vaccines, particularly the scientifically unproven
link between vaccines and a rise in autism, particularly in children.
During the Covid outbreaks, he found a nemesis in top virologist and advisor to Trump
and Biden, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has been criticized by other opponents as well,
especially for an overreach with anti-Covid measures including lockdowns and masks,
and obfuscation of research into the origins of the coronavirus. Fauci tried his best to
downplay the possibility that it originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. He has
written two recent books covering the subject, “The Real Anthony Fauci” (2021) and “A
Letter to Liberals” (2022). Before his focus on health issues, he fought as a lawyer
and activist for the environment. In 1987, Kennedy founded the Environmental Litigation
Clinic at Pace University School of Law, where for three decades he was the clinic’s
supervising attorney and co-director and Clinical Professor of Law. The clinic has sued
governments and companies for polluting Long Island Sound, the Hudson River, and its
tributaries. After the turn of the century, he continued legal battles on many
environmental fronts. In 2007, Kennedy was one of three finalists nominated for ‘Trial
Lawyer of the Year’ by Public Justice for his role in the $396 million jury verdict against
DuPont for contamination from its Spelter, West Virginia zinc plant.
His recent comments showed an understanding of the real reasons why Kremlin despot
Vladimir Putin has invaded Ukraine. He told a crowd recently that he believes the U.S.
government bears some responsibility for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — a view rejected
by America and many Western countries — and said that the ‘danger of reckless
escalation and nuclear brinksmanship’ was ‘real and present.’
After the recent attacks, especially by Trump and his allies, he sees a validation for his
third-party campaign. He has called on Biden and Trump to debate the two main
candidates in the 2024 campaign. He called Trump’s comments a ‘barely coherent’ rant,
saying ‘frightened men take to social media’. He attested that Trump sounds ‘unhinged’.
He specifically criticized Trump for ‘betraying the hopes of his most sincere followers,’
arguing the former president ‘promised to end the Ukraine war and then colluded with
Speaker Johnson and President Biden to fund it.’
It seems clear that those are only the opening salvos in an election year that could
become the most heated in US history.
