“We fight like hell!!” Donald Trump, then the 45th President of the United States, stood
on a podium in the park “Ellipse” in front of the White House. With thousands of
supporters hanging on his lips he repeated the lies about a stolen election, as all his
efforts to cling to power after the loss of the 2020 election to his Democratic rival Joe
Biden had been running out. Now he even pressured Vice President Mike Pence to
refuse to certify the election in his role as head of the Senate. Trump’s MAGA ‘army’
marched towards the Capitol building, enraged by the President’s fighting words.
Hours later the nation was shocked by a day of infamy, forever now known as ‘January
6’ as rioters stormed the building, battled police and rampaged through hallways and
offices. ‘Hang Mike Pence!’ some chanted. Six people died that day and during the
bloody riot, Trump even seemed to cheer them on, finally addressing the crowd in a
video message with ‘We love you’ but now it was time to go home.
Trump finally left the White House on the morning of January 20th disgraced and
politically finished, by all accounts. In the last chaotic days of the Trump presidency,
Congress started the second impeachment against Trump – but he was acquitted after
he left office.
This was a pivotal moment since Congress could have ended Trump’s political
aspirations for good since a conviction would have barred him from ever holding office
again. But the Republicans shied away.
It was the foundation for an incredible political comeback that no one thought possible
and few were paying attention to, at the time anyway. Fast forward to November 2022.
Trump has invited supporters, his team, and his family to a glittering event in the
opulent luxury resort Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. He announced his next candidacy for
the White House – two years before the actual elections.
But Trump’s star power seemed dimmed, his political fortunes waning. His
announcement was full of tired old grievances, yes, of course, including the constant
lies about a ‘rigged election’ in 2020 which he won in a landslide but has been taken
away by Biden and the ‘cheating democrats’, as he continuously claimed.
But less than two weeks before the announcement, his party suffered a setback during
the Midterm elections. They had hoped for a landslide since Biden remained unpopular
and a stubbornly high inflation made the electorate skeptical of his agenda. The
Democrats were betting all their cards on the abortion issue after the Supreme Court
overturned federal protection (Roe v Wade). It paid off, the President’s party, which
traditionally loses the Midterms, held on to the Senate and lost the House only
narrowly. Conservative leaders internally blamed the former President since he had
handpicked a number of candidates who proved to be too controversial. Within his
party, Trump seemed to be an Emperor without clothes. And even more alarming for
him, a potential heir apparent to Trump’s populist and conservative movement
emerged. Governor Ron DeSantis just won re-election in the swing state of Florida – by
a landslide. Pictures with his young family had the flair of the Kennedy era; it seemed
the way forward for Republicans would be DeSantis, representing a new generation of
leaders – and not Trump.
But while pundits on TV were promoting this narrative, Trump’s loyal MAGA fans had
no appetite to abandon their idol. They liked DeSantis, but they thought it would be too
early for him. And, more importantly, they wanted to give Trump another chance. Again
he built on his base and support grew in 2023, especially as he portrayed himself as a
victim of a legal system that had, in his words, been hijacked by Biden’s Democrats to
stop his new political rise.
‘Witch-hunt’ became Trump’s battle cry. He turned every new indictment into a
fundraising bonanza, even having coffee cups with his ‘Mug Shot’ printed and sold.
The tactic worked. DeSantis, who was leading over Trump in 2022, had fallen back
down to earth. For Trump’s opponents, it seemed like an impossible task. To take him
on directly would alienate his base, which was crucial in the party primaries. But also,
refusing to attack the front runner made it impossible to catch up and show contrasting
new ideas.
Trump won the Primaries easily, sweeping all early contests until all rivals dropped out
of the race. The last to drop out was his former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who ran a
popular campaign and would have had chances in the conservative party many years
back, but not in a party that Trump has remade in his own image.
Dominating his own party, Trump also pulled ahead in most polls in the new (old) duel
against Biden, a rematch for the Oval Office. He is still facing an increased legal threat
after the first criminal trial about hush money payments to a porn star got underway in
Lower Manhattan mid-April. However, Trump’s chances remain intact.
If he beats Biden on Election Day on November 5th and heads back to the White
House, it would be one of the most astonishing comeback stories in American
politics.
