Two recent strikes in Beirut and Tehran, reportedly carried out by Israel and targeting high-ranking figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, have placed Hezbollah and Iran in a challenging position. Analysts suggest that these strikes were significant security breaches for Iran and Hezbollah and will likely require a carefully calculated response to restore deterrence without escalating tensions further.
The first strike occurred in Beirut’s southern suburbs, resulting in the killing of a top Hezbollah commander, who Israel claims was responsible for a missile attack in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, causing the deaths of 12 children and teenagers. The strike in Beirut led to casualties among civilians, with at least five individuals killed, including three women and two children, and many more wounded.
Shortly after the Beirut strike, Hamas announced that its political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of Iran’s new president. Although Israel neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for this strike, analysts anticipate that both Hezbollah and Iran will feel compelled to retaliate, albeit with different considerations.
Experts believe that Hezbollah will likely aim for a significant retaliatory strike to restore deterrence. The group may target military installations in Israel, focusing on causing material damage to prevent further escalation. Meanwhile, Iran faces a more nuanced situation following the strike in Tehran, which highlighted its vulnerability. While some predict a harsh response from Iran, others suggest that the target not being an Iranian figure could influence the extent of retaliation.
Analysts emphasize the delicate balance required to prevent a wider conflict, with the hope that a response that avoids Israeli casualties could help avert a full-scale war. Despite the challenges ahead, observers warn of the complexities and uncertainties that could potentially lead to further escalation in the already fragile regional dynamics.
