President Biden doesn’t believe his bad poll numbers, nor do many of his closest advisers, according to sources familiar with the matter speaking to Axios.
This skepticism toward unfavorable polling is genuine, not just public spin, according to Democrats who have spoken privately with the president and his team.
This conviction has underpinned Biden’s consistent campaign strategy, despite calls from many Democrats outside the White House for a change in direction given that Biden’s current polling lags significantly behind his numbers from four years ago.
They argue that public polling fails to accurately capture the president’s support.
In both public and private settings, Biden has been asserting that he is gaining ground on Donald Trump in their 2020 rematch. “While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump,” Biden told donors during a recent West Coast trip.
A few days earlier, in a rare interview with CNN, Biden criticized polling methodologies when confronted with unfavorable numbers. “The polling data has been wrong all along. How many — you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?”
Recent polls in six key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — do not look favorable for Biden. A New York Times/Siena survey of more than 4,000 swing state voters showed Trump leading in five of them. Similarly, a Bloomberg News poll last month found Biden trailing Trump in six of seven swing states, including North Carolina.
Some national polls show Biden ahead or tied with Trump, and in several other polls, he is within the margin of error. This has allowed both Democrats and Republicans to claim momentum. Biden is often cherry-picking favorable numbers from a recent PBS/Marist poll.
Additionally, polling inaccuracies in recent years demonstrate that polls are not destiny: Trump outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020, and Democrats exceeded expectations in many 2022 midterm races. Many factors, including Trump’s legal issues, add more uncertainty to election projections.
Regardless of his public dismissals, Biden is clearly well-informed about the polling data and frequently delves into the detailed breakdowns.
