Warmer sea temperatures fueled Hurricane Francine and may intensify additional autumn storms

Warm ocean water in the Gulf of Mexico played a significant role in the rapid strengthening of Hurricane Francine, which posed a threat to Louisiana residents preparing for the storm’s expected landfall on Wednesday. Heat from warm water fuels hurricanes by causing faster evaporation, leading to storm intensification and increased rainfall. Mid-September typically marks the peak of hurricane season, and Francine traversed an area of the ocean with high energy levels.

By Wednesday afternoon, Francine had escalated into a Category 2 hurricane, with sustained winds nearing 100 mph (161 kph). The warm Gulf of Mexico waters, particularly a deep layer that contained record-breaking heat, contributed to the storm’s intensification. Brian McNoldy from the University of Miami highlighted the exceptional heat in the deeper layer of water that Francine passed over, noting that a hot water eddy further fueled the storm.

Although the coastal waters were slightly cooler than average, inhibiting further intensification, the conditions were still favorable for Francine’s rapid strengthening. Hurricane researcher Gabriel Vecchi mentioned that such intense and quick changes in storms are likely to become more common in the future due to global warming. However, factors like dry air and disruptive winds near the coast were working to diminish Francine’s power as it approached land.

Federal forecasters had predicted an intense hurricane season, and Hurricane Beryl’s historic early formation attested to this. As of mid-season, the Atlantic had seen average activity, with only six named storms. Climate and hurricane researcher Robert West warned that the tropics were showing signs of increased activity, possibly due to warming oceans and the potential development of La Nina, a weather pattern that can strengthen hurricanes.

Experts emphasized that while climate change contributes to warming oceans globally, directly linking specific storm activity to a warming planet can be challenging. The warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico were expected to continue fueling storm development, and the possibility of a busy hurricane period loomed ahead.