Updated mid-season forecast for Atlantic hurricane season continues to anticipate high activity

Federal forecasters have reaffirmed their prediction for an active Atlantic hurricane season due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the potential development of La Nina, as announced on Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s revised hurricane outlook indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for an exceptionally active hurricane season, which could be among the busiest ever recorded.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad highlighted the early and intense start of the hurricane season with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record. Spinrad emphasized the approaching peak of hurricane season as the period when the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms typically occur.
The forecast remains largely consistent with the May predictions, with a slight adjustment in the number of anticipated named storms from 17-25 to 17-24. Among these named storms, 8-13 are expected to develop into hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 75 mph, including 4-7 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.
On average, an Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three develop into major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
The updated outlook accounts for two tropical storms and two hurricanes that have already formed this year, including Hurricane Debby which made landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida before moving through the Carolinas as a tropical storm.
The intensity of a hurricane season is primarily influenced by two key factors: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, providing the warm water necessary for storm formation, and the presence of La Nina or El Nino in the Pacific, which can impact weather patterns globally. La Nina typically enhances Atlantic storm activity while reducing storminess in the Pacific, with the potential to fuel hurricane development through increased atmospheric instability.
Following the conclusion of last year’s El Nino, which typically suppresses storm formation, forecasters anticipate the emergence of La Nina between September and November, potentially overlapping with the peak of hurricane season from mid-August to mid-October.
Despite the inhibitory effects of El Nino last season, warm ocean temperatures led to an above-average hurricane season, with 20 named storms recorded – the fourth-highest since 1950 and significantly surpassing the annual average of 14 storms. The overall assessment of storm strength, duration, and frequency indicated that last season was 17% more active than normal.