Key Points Summary — Undersea Volcano

• Scientists predict the undersea volcano Axial Seamount could erupt by the end of 2025
• Located nearly a mile deep in the Pacific Ocean, it sits 700 miles from San Francisco
• The volcano has erupted three times since 1998, most recently in 2015
• Unlike explosive volcanoes, Axial’s eruptions ooze lava and pose no tsunami risk
• Sea life and research equipment on the ocean floor could be impacted
• The volcano lies over a hot spot and tectonic ridge, making eruptions frequent
• Scientists say this may be the best-monitored undersea volcano in the world

Undersea Volcano Could Blow This Year, Scientists Warn

A massive volcano is lurking beneath the Pacific Ocean, and it may not stay quiet much longer.

Axial Seamount, an undersea giant, is building toward another eruption. Scientists say it could blow before the year ends. Located nearly a mile underwater and 700 miles off the California coast, it’s remote — but not ignored.

Axial isn’t new to volcanologists. They discovered it back in the 1980s. Since then, it’s erupted three times — in 1998, 2011, and 2015.

Scientists Closely Watching Axial Seamount

What makes Axial unique isn’t just its activity. It’s the fact that scientists can watch it so closely.

It’s wired up. Sensors track every shudder, shift, and swell. And right now? The seafloor is inflating — a clear warning sign.

“It’s like a balloon,” said geophysicist Bill Chadwick. “When magma fills the chamber, the ground rises. When it erupts, it drops.”

Undersea Lava Rivers Bring Silent Destruction

Axial won’t explode like Mount St. Helens. Its lava flows out slowly, creeping across the ocean floor. It’s violent in a quieter way.

Hot lava burns through cold seawater, instantly forming crusts. But inside, molten rock stays hot for weeks.

Some creatures die in the process. Research equipment can melt or vanish. But larger sea life stays safe. Whales and fish are too high up in the water to be harmed.

This Volcano Is One of Earth’s Most Active

It’s erupting often, and there’s a reason why.

Axial Seamount sits where two tectonic plates slowly pull apart. Magma rises through the gap, building pressure.

Even more dramatic? It rests directly above a geological hot spot, where magma constantly pushes toward the surface. The combo is explosive.

Scientists Can Predict Eruptions Weeks Ahead

Unlike many volcanoes, Axial shows a pattern. Between eruptions, the seafloor inflates at a steady rate. When it hits a certain point, it blows.

In 2015, scientists got it right. Chadwick and Scott Nooner saw the signs and predicted the eruption months before it happened.

They’re trying again. Based on data from 2024, they say the volcano could erupt by the end of this year.

Forecasting Still an Uncertain Science

Despite the progress, prediction isn’t perfect.

Axial’s inflation slowed after 2019. By 2023, it nearly stopped. Scientists paused their guesses. But now, the pressure is rising again.

No one knows the exact moment it’ll happen. Earthquakes near the volcano will give final clues. But those haven’t spiked yet.

The Next Blast Could Happen While No One’s Watching

Catching an undersea eruption live is rare. It takes perfect timing and fast deployment. Neither are easy.

“The eruptions may only last a week or a month,” Chadwick said. “You need a ship, a submersible, and luck.”

He won’t return until 2026. If his 2025 prediction is right, the volcano will blow before then. Scientists will have to watch it unfold remotely.

Axial Is a Natural Laboratory

Scientists love Axial because it’s consistent. It behaves the same each time. That makes it an ideal place to test eruption models.

And it’s far from humans, so errors don’t cost lives.

Chadwick says if their predictions keep working, the methods might one day help forecast eruptions on land. That could save lives in places like Indonesia, Japan, or even the U.S.

Volcanoes in the Deep Shape Our Planet

Most people don’t realize it, but 80% of Earth’s volcanic activity happens underwater. The ocean hides it.

Axial Seamount just happens to be one of the few we can watch in action.

If it erupts this year, it won’t trigger a tsunami or shake the ground in San Francisco. But it will light up the ocean floor, reshape the crust, and add another chapter to a mystery still unfolding beneath the waves.

And maybe, just maybe, teach us how to predict the next big one.