• The peace deal creates a 20-mile transit corridor giving Azerbaijan direct access to its western region, Nakhchivan.
• The US gains exclusive development rights along the route, reducing Russia’s influence in the Caucasus.
• The agreement shifts regional power dynamics, complicating Russia’s ambitions amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine.

Donald Trump has once again stepped into the role of global dealmaker. This time, the stage is one of the world’s most complicated and long-running conflicts. In a dramatic breakthrough after decades of bloodshed, the former president has brokered a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Experts say it could reshape power in the Caucasus and give Washington valuable leverage over Russia.

The deal, unveiled on Friday, comes with a striking twist. At its heart is a 20-mile transit corridor, modestly branded the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.” This will, for the first time, give Azerbaijan direct land access to its westernmost region, Nakhchivan.

A Strategic Link in a Divided Land

For those unfamiliar with the geography, Azerbaijan exists in two separated pieces. There’s the main territory, and then, cut off by Armenia, lies Nakhchivan. It is an isolated enclave that has been stranded from the rest of the country for decades.

“It’s a bit like America and Alaska,” explained Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. “But instead of having friendly Canada in between, you’ve got Armenia.”

Since the late 1980s, war and hostility between the two nations have made it impossible for Azerbaijanis to travel directly through Armenia to reach Nakhchivan. Consequently, trade routes have been forced into long, costly detours.

Back in 2020, Russia — which maintains relationships with both countries — negotiated a deal to open a passage through Armenian territory. The plan was simple: Azerbaijan wouldn’t control the corridor. However, it could use it for trade, much as the US can ship goods through Canada to Alaska.

The plan never materialized. Moscow, distracted and increasingly ineffective, failed to make it happen.

Russia’s Waning Grip on Armenia

Armenia, once a staunch ally of the Kremlin, began to lose patience. Tensions hit boiling point in 2023 when Russia failed to defend Armenia during a swift military campaign by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan sought to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh, a contested region Armenia had controlled for over 20 years.

The Trump-brokered deal changes the equation entirely. Not only does it open the long-promised corridor, but it also grants the United States exclusive development rights along the route. That puts Washington in a position to replace Russia as the dominant outside power in the region. Moscow will not easily accept this shift.

“Russia is being pushed out of a conflict it once used to control both sides,” said John Hardie, director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy’s Russia program. “For decades they kept it frozen to use as leverage. Now, they’re losing that card.”

A Blow to Putin’s Regional Ambitions

For Vladimir Putin, the optics are painful. The Russian president has repeatedly described the Soviet Union’s collapse as “the disintegration of historical Russia” and “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the last century. Watching Washington gain a foothold in the Caucasus — right on the edge of Russia’s former empire — will sting deeply.

While it’s uncertain whether this breakthrough could influence the war in Ukraine, analysts agree that Moscow will see it as another strategic setback.

“Russia’s not going to be happy,” Coffey noted bluntly. “I’m sure it’s already a talking point in discussions between Washington and the Kremlin. Behind closed doors, who knows what could be traded? Maybe a role for a Russian company in the corridor, maybe part of a bigger Ukraine settlement. This White House sees everything as a transaction — it’s about getting the best deal possible.”

A Rare Moment of Hope in a Bitter Conflict

The Armenia-Azerbaijan feud is one of the post-Soviet world’s most entrenched disputes. Tens of thousands have died in multiple wars, villages have been destroyed, and generations have grown up in the shadow of violence.

For the people on the ground, the “Trump Route” is more than a political chess move — it’s a potential lifeline. Farmers could sell their produce without days-long detours. Families split by borders might see relatives without braving hostile territory. Traders could revive ancient commerce routes through the Caucasus.

But peace in the region has been promised before and failed to take root. Many Armenians remain wary, seeing the deal as a concession forced under pressure. Some Azerbaijani nationalists demand even more territory.

In Yerevan, small protests have already begun, with demonstrators accusing their government of giving in to outside powers. Social media across the Caucasus is ablaze with heated arguments. Some people are praising Trump for delivering what others could not. Others are warning that the deal may unravel before it’s even implemented.

Washington’s New Leverage

For Washington, this isn’t just about a strip of land. It’s about replacing Russia as the main power broker in a strategic crossroads between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. By securing exclusive development rights, the US gains influence over trade, security, and even energy flows through the corridor.

“America is stepping into a vacuum left by Russia,” Hardie said. “And in geopolitics, vacuums don’t last long. Someone always fills them.”

That influence could prove useful far beyond the Caucasus. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine and struggling to keep its allies close, the US now has another card to play in future negotiations.

A Fragile Road Ahead

The Trump peace deal is a bold move, but its survival depends on both sides keeping their promises. It also depends on Moscow’s willingness to accept its reduced role. Armenia and Azerbaijan must now build trust after decades of bloodshed. Washington must tread carefully to avoid it being seen as exploiting the region for its own gain.

Still, the symbolism is undeniable: in a part of the world where Russia once called all the shots, the United States now holds a key piece of the map.

Whether that piece becomes a bridge to lasting peace or another pawn in the global power game remains to be seen. But for now, Trump’s unexpected diplomatic victory has shifted the balance. The reverberations are being felt from Yerevan to Moscow.