• Trump claims total destruction: President Trump insists the U.S. strikes completely wiped out Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
• Intelligence suggests limited impact. U.S. defense officials say Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains mostly intact. It was only set back by a few months.
• Public and political divide: The conflicting narratives have sparked sharp debate among lawmakers, defense experts, and the public.

It’s the question gripping Washington, Tel Aviv, and Tehran: Did Donald Trump really destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, or did he simply bruise them?

Following a dramatic series of U.S. airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites last weekend, President Trump didn’t waste a second claiming victory. From a NATO summit in the Netherlands, he took to social media, thundering in all caps that it was “one of the most successful military strikes in history”. His message was loud and clear: Iran’s nuclear threat had been “completely destroyed.”

But behind closed doors in Washington, a very different picture is emerging—one that throws cold water on the former president’s bold claims. According to seven people briefed on an early intelligence assessment, Trump’s triumphant version doesn’t match what U.S. intelligence agencies are seeing on the ground.

Intelligence Report Contradicts Trump’s Victory Lap

A preliminary analysis from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), obtained by those familiar with the situation, tells a less flattering story. According to the report, the U.S. strikes did not destroy Iran’s core nuclear infrastructure. In fact, they only caused superficial damage. The program was set back by mere months, not years.

Key elements of Iran’s nuclear effort—including its uranium stockpile and the centrifuges used for enrichment—are still intact. Some intelligence officials believe Iran may have moved key materials out of the targeted facilities ahead of time. This suggests they had at least some forewarning.

“The centrifuges are mostly untouched,” said one source briefed on the analysis. “And the uranium? Still there. If anything, this delays their nuclear program by a few months. Not years.”

In other words: the threat is far from neutralized.

Trump’s Camp Dismisses the Intel—Calls It a Leak by “Losers”

Faced with the conflicting report, the White House didn’t back down. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt slammed the leaked assessment, calling it “flat-out wrong” and accusing the intelligence community of political sabotage. She referred to the unnamed source as a “low-level loser” trying to “discredit the brave fighter pilots” and undermine Trump’s leadership.

Her argument? Simple physics: “Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets—total obliteration.”

Trump echoed this confidence, brushing off the intel as “fake news” and praising what he called “a perfectly executed mission.” He doubled down, insisting the sites were now “under rock” and “demolished.”

Mixed Messages Within the Government

Not everyone in the Trump administration is singing from the same songbook. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth went on television claiming the bombing “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.” However, military leaders have urged caution.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine admitted that it’s “way too early” to draw firm conclusions about the strike’s effectiveness. Intelligence collection is ongoing, particularly from within Iran. A clearer picture may still emerge. For now, there’s no unified view—and that’s raising eyebrows.

Republican Congressman Michael McCaul, a staunch supporter of Trump, also appeared less certain. “I’ve been briefed on this plan in the past, and it was never meant to completely destroy the nuclear facilities,” McCaul told reporters. “It was a strategic hit, not a final blow.”

That measured take stands in stark contrast to Trump’s sweeping proclamations.

What Really Happened on the Ground?

The operation itself was undeniably massive. American B-2 stealth bombers dropped over a dozen 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on Iran’s most notorious enrichment facilities—Fordow and Natanz, among others. At the same time, Tomahawk missiles were launched from submarines targeting the complex in Isfahan.

According to satellite imagery and early assessments, the bulk of the damage appears to be above ground—to power grids, metalworking facilities, and support structures. However, the deeply buried centrifuges—the real heart of Iran’s enrichment program—seem to have survived.

Some experts argue this was predictable. Jeffrey Lewis, a respected nuclear weapons analyst, noted that these bunkers were built for precisely this reason. “You’re talking about heavily fortified underground sites. The bombs likely didn’t reach the lower levels,” he said.

This may explain why Isfahan wasn’t even targeted with bunker busters. Instead, it was targeted with surface-impact missiles—raising further doubts about the strike’s effectiveness.

Israel: Two Years’ Damage—But Only If Iran Can Rebuild

Israel, which had been striking Iranian assets in the days leading up to the U.S. operation, has a slightly more optimistic outlook. While their own assessment also showed less damage than expected at Fordow, Israeli officials believe the combined strikes set Iran’s nuclear ambitions back by two years, assuming Iran is allowed to rebuild freely. Israel vows to prevent this.

Still, even Israeli officials had already estimated the program had been delayed by that much before the U.S. joined the fight. This casts doubt on whether Washington’s high-profile bombing run added much more than symbolism.

Classified Briefings Suddenly Cancelled

Amid the swirling contradictions, classified briefings scheduled for lawmakers were abruptly canceled earlier this week. Both the Senate and the House were set to be briefed on the aftermath of the operation—but both meetings were postponed without clear explanations.

That prompted sharp criticism from Democrats. Rep. Pat Ryan of New York posted on X: “Trump just canceled a classified House briefing on the Iran strikes with zero explanation. The real reason? He claims he destroyed ‘all nuclear facilities and capability;’ his team knows they can’t back up his bluster and BS.”

Ryan’s accusation captures a growing sentiment: that the public spin from Trump’s team doesn’t line up with military and intelligence reality.

So—Was It a Win, or Was It Theater?

For Trump, the narrative of a total win fits neatly into his 2024 campaign rhetoric. He wants to project strength, resolve, and military prowess. But behind the curtain, the numbers aren’t quite lining up. With uranium stockpiles intact and centrifuges still spinning, Iran’s nuclear threat hasn’t been wiped out—it’s just been bruised.

In a world where perception can shape policy, that discrepancy between what’s being said and what’s actually happened is more than just a political problem. It could shape what comes next, for Iran, for the Middle East, and for the world.

One thing’s for sure: this story is far from over.