Sensation at the Oscars: „Wicked“ is the big Oscar-favorite for this season

Hollywood insiders are abuzz with speculation that Wicked, Jon M. Chu’s blockbuster movie musical, could break the Academy Awards’ long-standing snub of commercial juggernauts and emerge as a serious contender for Best Picture in March.

A Commercial Comeback for the Oscars?

The Oscars have largely overlooked highly commercial films since Star Wars, favoring smaller, prestige projects. However, Wicked—an adaptation of the hit Broadway musical about misunderstood witches and political intrigue in Oz—might signal a shift.

While early buzz ranked the film low in awards predictions, its release has turned the tide. Packed screenings at Directors Guild, PGA, and SAG events have seen audiences erupt in applause and standing ovations, indicating Wicked has resonated deeply with industry voters.

A Post-Pandemic Appetite for Spectacle

Following years dominated by smaller, streaming-friendly films like CODA and Nomadland, many Academy members seem eager to embrace the return of cinematic spectacle. The success of Oppenheimer—with its billion-dollar box office and Imax visuals—set the stage for another blockbuster to claim the Best Picture crown.

Universal Studios is leaning into Wicked’s darker, politically charged themes to appeal to voters seeking substance alongside spectacle. The story’s roots in Gregory Maguire’s dystopian novel, written during Operation Desert Storm, and its adaptation during George W. Bush’s presidency offer parallels to today’s political climate, making the film unexpectedly timely.

Obstacles on the Yellow Brick Road

Despite its strengths, Wicked faces challenges. The Academy’s preferential voting system often favors smaller, consensus-driven films over divisive blockbusters. Additionally, with Wicked being the first in a two-part series, voters might delay recognition until the sequel completes the story—similar to how Peter Jackson’s The Return of the King swept the Oscars only after the conclusion of the Lord of the Rings trilogy.

The Case for Wicked

In a year marked by recovery from the pandemic, strikes, and concerns over AI and streaming, Wicked offers a celebration of traditional, human-made cinema. Its lavish production and resonant themes could unite Academy members in rewarding a blockbuster that champions the power of storytelling on the big screen.

As one voter put it: “If your vote for president didn’t count, you’re going to make it count for Wicked.”

Only time will tell if the Academy is ready to embrace Elphaba and Glinda’s journey to the Emerald City. But for now, Wicked stands poised as a frontrunner, ready to challenge Hollywood’s biases against big, bold, and unabashedly commercial cinema.