March Madness 2025 has already given us some jaw-dropping upsets and unforgettable moments. As we head into the second round, the tension builds and the matchups get even more intense. From potential Cinderella stories to powerhouse battles, the NCAA Tournament field is thinning, and every possession counts.
Let’s break down some of the biggest games of the second round with our , focusing on betting lines, recent trends, and key players. Whether you’re filling out a bracket, placing a bet, or just a die-hard hoops fan, here’s what to expect when these heavyweights and underdogs collide.
2025 March Madness: UConn (+9.5) Over Florida
Yes, the defending champions are underdogs. Let that sink in.
UConn’s quest for a three-peat might not end in another title, but don’t expect the Huskies to go down quietly. Head coach Dan Hurley has won 13 straight NCAA Tournament games—an incredible streak built on preparation, toughness, and elite defense.
Florida, on the other hand, is suddenly everyone’s trendy pick to win it all. Head coach Todd Golden picked up his first March Madness win just two days ago. It’s a great story, but is it too soon to believe the Gators are ready to steamroll their way through an experienced tournament team like UConn?
Hurley summed it up best this week:
“I feel like in a weird way it’s a little pressure off of us going into the tournament where we could just go out and let it rip right now.”
That mindset could make UConn dangerous. With nothing to lose and plenty of experience, expect a scrappy, high-effort performance from the Huskies. They may not win, but covering the +9.5 spread feels like a solid play in our 2025 March Madness second round predictions.
2025 March Madness Second Round Predictions: Duke (-11.5) Over Baylor
On paper, an 11.5-point spread in a second-round matchup seems steep. But in this case, Duke’s dominance warrants the number.
The top-seeded Blue Devils have lost just once since November and are a remarkable 22-12 against the spread (ATS) as favorites. That consistency matters in March.
Baylor, meanwhile, has struggled when facing elite competition. The Bears are just 3-7-2 ATS as underdogs, and 10 of their losses this season have come against ranked teams—six of those by double digits. That doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Yes, Baylor survived the first round by dominating Mississippi State on the boards. But that advantage disappears against Duke’s frontcourt, which ranks seventh nationally in rebounding rate.
And let’s not forget about the tournament’s breakout star so far: Cooper Flagg. The freshman phenom is healthy, hot, and has the potential to put on a performance reminiscent of Carmelo Anthony’s legendary 2003 run.
This one could get out of hand quickly. Duke should roll, and covering the spread looks likely.
Maryland (-7.5) Over Colorado State
Colorado State is riding high after winning 11 straight games, but how good have those wins really been?
Eight of those victories came against non-tournament teams, while two others were against Utah State, a 10-seed that was blown out in the first round by UCLA. Simply put, Colorado State’s streak might be more about favorable matchups than dominance.
Maryland, on the other hand, brings elite defense to the table. The Terrapins have the seventh-best defensive rating in the country and are known for their ability to shut down teams with pace and spacing.
Colorado State has faced six other top 10 defenses this season. They lost five of those games by an average of 13 points. That trend could continue against a Maryland squad that is physical, focused, and playing with confidence.
With future first-round pick Derik Queen and senior Julian Reese leading the charge in the paint, Maryland’s size advantage will be a key factor. The Rams simply don’t have the size or depth inside—they have no regular rotation player taller than 6-foot-8.
Expect the Terps to control this game from start to finish. Laying the 7.5 points looks like the right call in this matchup.
2025 March Madness Second Round Predictions: Oregon (+3.5) Over Arizona
If there’s one underdog that feels ripe for a second-round win, it’s the Oregon Ducks.
Arizona might be the better team on paper, but Tommy Lloyd’s track record in the NCAA Tournament raises serious red flags. In each of his last three tournament appearances, Arizona has suffered upsets by lower-seeded teams, often falling apart under pressure.
Meanwhile, Oregon head coach Dana Altman has quietly become one of the most reliable tournament coaches. With 780 career wins and five Sweet 16 appearances since 2013, Altman knows how to prepare his team for March.
This season, his Ducks are peaking at the right time. They demolished Liberty in the first round—a popular Cinderella pick—and have now won nine of their last ten games.
Defensively, Oregon has been one of the best teams in the country down the stretch. That spells trouble for an Arizona team that has gone just 3-8 against top 25 defenses this season.
Take Oregon +3.5 in this one. There’s a strong chance they win outright.
Bonus Pick: UConn’s Championship Pedigree Still Matters
While Florida might be the hot pick this March, don’t count out the value of experience. UConn has a roster that’s battle-tested, with players who know what it takes to win in this environment.
Dan Hurley’s Huskies may not have the same firepower as in past years, but they’re mentally tough, well-coached, and comfortable in close games.
If they get past Florida—and that’s a big if—don’t be shocked if they make another deep run.
2025 March Madness Second Round Predictions – Trends to Watch
- Top seeds against the spread in the second round historically cover 63% of the time. Duke fits that mold.
- Underdogs with veteran backcourts win outright more often than you think. Oregon and UConn both check that box.
- Teams with a top 10 defense are covering at 70% this March—big edge for Maryland.
- Coaches with tournament experience typically outperform first-timers by 1.8 points per game ATS.
Final Thoughts: 2025 March Madness Second Round Predictions
The beauty of March Madness is that anything can happen. While the numbers and trends give us a good picture, the unexpected always lurks around the corner.
Still, these 2025 March Madness second round predictions feel grounded in more than just gut feeling. The matchups favor certain teams, the lines are sharp, and the coaching experience matters more than ever.
To recap:
- UConn +9.5 over Florida – Underdogs with a chip on their shoulder.
- Duke -11.5 over Baylor – Flagg and friends look unstoppable.
- Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State – Defense wins in March.
- Oregon +3.5 over Arizona – The Ducks are peaking at the right time.
Whether you’re betting, watching, or cheering, these second-round matchups are must-see action. Buckle up—March is only getting crazier.
