As the 2024 hurricane season winds down with a Nov. 30 end date, meteorologists report possible late-season storm development in the western Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center places a 40 percent likelihood of this system forming into a named storm, potentially “Patty,” within the coming week.
While it’s too early to confirm strength, timing, or exact impacts, early weather models suggest a northward or northeastward drift, potentially approaching Jamaica, Cuba, or the Gulf of Mexico.
Where meteorologists see potential formation
A low-pressure zone is developing in the central and western Caribbean, known as the Central American Gyre (CAG). This weather system, while broad and generally weak, could generate a storm as embedded thunderstorm complexes grow stronger, as was the case with Hurricane Milton earlier in the season.
Estimated timing of development
Early predictions suggest any new system could develop between Halloween and Nov. 3, with conditions in the Atlantic, including a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave, favoring possible storm formation.
Key areas to monitor
If a storm forms, steering currents would likely guide it north or northeast. Residents in Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica are encouraged to stay alert for updates. This may be the season’s final storm system, as hurricane activity typically decreases in November.
