Polling guru Nate Silver’s ‘gut feeling’ points to Trump–but swing states still hang in the balance

Polling expert Nate Silver has expressed that, despite mixed data, his “gut says” Donald Trump may win the 2024 presidential election. In a New York Times op-ed, Silver noted that although the battleground states show polling too close to call, he believes Trump’s chances are strong. According to the New York Post, Trump’s current model gives him a 53.1% chance of becoming the next president.

Polling Bias and Misestimations

Silver pointed out that in the past, polls have underestimated Trump’s performance due to “nonresponse bias,” where not enough Trump supporters were reached by pollsters. He explained that while these voters aren’t lying, the polling methods have missed key groups. Silver also mentioned potential biases in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris due to efforts to correct past errors in reaching Trump voters.

Challenges with Party Identification and Voter Memory

Silver also emphasized a shift in party identification, with Republicans now matching Democrats in numbers. He cautioned that pollsters could skew results by focusing too much on correcting past mistakes, such as adjusting for COVID-19-related factors in the 2020 election, which might lead to overcorrection in favor of Harris.

Close Race in the Battleground States

While Silver’s model suggests Trump has a slight edge, the national popular vote remains tight. RealClearPolitics’ aggregate shows Harris with a narrow lead of 1.1%. However, projections indicate that Trump could win all key swing states, potentially securing victory in the election.

Silver’s Track Record

Silver has successfully tracked the last five presidential elections, including Barack Obama’s 2008 win. His cautious predictions continue to shape political conversations as the 2024 election approaches.