Oscar Insiders final verdict: Who will win! And who should win…

Those are the final Oscars 2025 predictions by the Hollywood Insider: Anora leads Best Picture, Sean Baker for Best Director, and Adrien Brody for Best Actor. The Brutalist and Conclave could surprise.

Best Picture

Will Win: Anora
The race is tight, but Anora has dominated key awards, including Cannes, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, and Spirit. Given recent trends favoring edgier films (Parasite, Everything Everywhere All at Once), it’s the safest bet.

Should Win: The Brutalist
A staggering indie achievement, The Brutalist explores the American Dream’s promises and betrayals with a level of ambition rarely seen today.

Best Director

Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) has made waves, but Baker, a DGA winner and champion of indie cinema, has the industry’s backing.

Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Corbet’s journey from cinephile to visionary director shines in this epic, a culmination of lessons learned from auteur mentors.

Best Actor

Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
With nearly every major win under his belt, Brody could become the 11th actor to claim multiple Oscars in this category.

Should Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
A powerful portrayal of ambition, trauma, and the immigrant experience, Brody delivers a career-defining performance.

Best Actress

Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
With Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globe wins, Moore has the momentum. While Anora’s Mikey Madison impressed, Hollywood loves a comeback story.

Should Win: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
A performance of defiance and resilience, Torres captivates in this deeply moving international contender.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Culkin has swept the season, though his character’s similarity to Succession’s Roman Roy raises slight concerns.

Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
His performance balances humor and grief, making him the emotional anchor of the film.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Her transformation in Jacques Audiard’s film, performing in Spanish while singing and dancing, has earned her widespread acclaim.

Should Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Her layered performance is the soul of the film, cementing her versatility beyond franchise blockbusters.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
Having won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice, Straughan is the clear frontrunner.

Should Win: Peter Straughan, Conclave
A gripping adaptation of Robert Harris’ novel, blending political intrigue with existential themes.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
With a WGA win and Anora’s strong Best Picture chances, Baker has the edge.

Should Win: Sean Baker, Anora
His script finds humor and heartbreak in an unpredictable tale of love, money, and survival.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Porcelain War
While No Other Land is critically adored, Porcelain War offers a more hopeful narrative, which could sway Academy voters.

Should Win: No Other Land
A fearless, urgent documentary that exposes the harsh realities of life in the West Bank.

Best International Feature

Will Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Momentum has shifted from Emilia Pérez to I’m Still Here, especially as more voters catch up with the film.

Should Win: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
A powerful reflection on dictatorship, resistance, and survival, deeply resonant in today’s world.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: The Wild Robot
With Critics Choice and Annie wins, plus nominations in other categories, it’s the favorite.

Should Win: Flow
A visually stunning, deeply moving eco-fable that stands apart from traditional studio animation.

Technical and Short Film Categories

• Cinematography: The Brutalist
• Costume Design: Wicked
• Film Editing: Conclave
• Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance
• Original Score: The Brutalist
• Original Song: “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
• Production Design: Wicked
• Sound: Dune: Part Two
• Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
• Animated Short: Yuck!
• Documentary Short: Death by Numbers
• Live-Action Short: The Last Ranger

Final Takeaway

With Anora leading the pack and The Brutalist making a strong case for underdog success, this year’s Oscars could bring a mix of expected wins and surprises.