No change in polls after 1 month of political turbulence: Harris and Trump keep their head-to-head-race in new Fox News poll

The latest Fox News poll on the Presidential race shows that despite significant events and public opinions, the head-to-head race for the upcoming November election remains unchanged. Vice President Kamala Harris is still trailing former President Donald Trump by a single percentage point, 49% to 50%. This mirrors last month’s poll, where both Harris and President Joe Biden were also behind Trump by one point, 48% to 49%.

Since the previous poll, several major events have occurred: an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, Ohio Senator JD Vance being chosen as Trump’s running mate, Biden dropping out and endorsing Harris, Harris officially becoming the Democratic nominee, and selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Despite these developments and record-breaking attendance at Harris’s campaign events, the race remains remarkably stable. Here’s why:

Harris is backed by 94% of Democrats, while 93% of Republicans support Trump. Among Independents, Trump leads by 8 points. Trump retains 95% of his 2020 supporters, and Harris holds 93% of Biden’s 2020 backers. New voters, those who haven’t participated in the last four general elections, are split evenly at 49% for each candidate. Last month, these new voters leaned towards Trump over Biden by 7 points.

There is a notable gender gap, with men favoring Trump by 12 points and women favoring Harris by 10 points. Trump’s strongest support comes from men, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree. For Harris, her key supporters are women, Black voters, those under 30, and college graduates. Her support among these groups slightly surpasses Biden’s from the previous poll, though it still falls short of what Biden received closer to the 2020 election.

The poll also indicates that those living in union households favor Harris by 10 points, while military veterans prefer Trump by 22 points. Voters who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump favor Harris by 41 points, but those disliking both Harris and Trump lean towards Trump by 15 points.

In an expanded presidential ballot, Harris and Trump are tied at 45%, with 6% supporting Kennedy. Support for Kennedy has dropped from 10% in July and a high of 15% in November 2023. Among Harris’s supporters in the head-to-head matchup, 7% are inclined towards third-party candidates, compared to 9% of Trump’s supporters.