In light of increasing pressure and diverging interests from its traditional ally, the United States, the European Union is confronted with an evolving geopolitical landscape. The actions of President Donald Trump’s administration, including threats towards Greenland and a series of sweeping tariffs, have prompted a reconsideration among European leaders about their dependency on American support. Meanwhile, China keenly observes these developments, anticipating an opportunity to exploit any divides within the Western alliance. Over recent years, the EU has closely aligned with the U.S. in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and sanctioning Chinese officials suspected of human rights abuses.
Currently embroiled in a protracted trade conflict with the U.S., Beijing views the 27-member European Union as a potential partner to mitigate the effects of Trump’s aggressive tariffs and preserve its prominent position on the global stage. However, navigating relations with China remains a complex task for EU leaders gathering in Brussels to deliberate on various pressing international and regional concerns.
A forthcoming summit scheduled for July in China marks five decades of diplomatic relations between the EU and China, offering a glimpse into emerging consensus between these global powers. Economic exchanges between China and the EU are substantial, with bilateral trade estimated at approximately 2.3 billion euros ($2.7 billion) daily. China ranks as the EU’s second-largest trading partner in goods, following the United States, and both entities recognize the mutual benefit of stable trade relations and shared climate goals.
Yet, like the U.S., Europe faces a significant trade deficit with China, which last year stood at around 300 billion euros. With European companies experiencing dwindling profitability within China, EU leaders are hopeful that Beijing will act on promises, including a recent Ministry of Commerce announcement to ease restrictions on foreign enterprises.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at a recent G7 meeting, criticized China’s practices intended to undermine intellectual property protections and dominate global supply chains through substantial subsidies. Europe, already concerned about its trade imbalance, fears Trump’s tariffs may lead to further influxes of Chinese goods in European markets, potentially destabilizing the continent’s economies. Such circumstances could enhance China’s leverage in negotiations, according to Alicia Garcia-Herrero of the Bruegel think tank, based in Brussels.
While analysts do not anticipate a sweeping agreement at the upcoming summit, it is expected that China will push the EU to eliminate tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles or reopen discussions regarding the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. Both actions would convey a strong message to Washington. China’s key objective is ensuring that the EU remains a viable and prosperous market for goods hindered from entering the U.S. due to Trump’s tariff measures. Despite a pause in the trade dispute, Chinese companies are expanding globally to lessen reliance on the U.S.
The mere occurrence of the summit will carry significance, notes Noah Barkin of the German Marshall Fund, with the EU aiming for von der Leyen to engage with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Unlike previous visits where von der Leyen was reportedly snubbed, the Chinese government is expected to offer a warm reception, underscoring unity through symbolic gestures such as leaders walking through gardens together.
Sun Chenghao from Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy expresses optimism for more independently formulated China-Europe relations, free from external influences. He asserts that Europe must develop its China policy based on independent interests, while China should cultivate a nuanced approach toward Europe.
Tainted by contentious issues such as China’s human rights violations, espionage, and military build-up, EU-China relations face additional challenges. Recent incidents, including a bribery investigation involving Chinese tech giant Huawei and alleged cyberattacks linked to Beijing, have fueled tensions across Europe.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further strained ties, with Europe perceiving China’s stance as covertly supportive of Moscow’s militaristic endeavors. This perception led the EU to recently cancel a high-level economic dialogue with China, reflecting lingering trade disputes. Moreover, the EU has implemented measures to curtail Chinese involvement in its medical devices market.
Amidst these complex dynamics, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has openly criticized Europe’s flirtations with China, particularly targeting Spain’s engagement, cautioning that such actions could have detrimental consequences as China seeks new outlets for goods unable to reach the U.S. market.
The divergent paths taken by Brussels and Washington in relation to China weaken their collective bargaining power, potentially compromising U.S. endeavors to counterbalance China on the global stage. Former U.S. ambassador to China, Nick Burns, highlights the need for a unified front with Japan and the EU to effectively negotiate with China. Burns suggests that Trump’s disregard and sometimes adversarial approach towards traditional allies have diminished crucial leverage.
Joerg Wuttke, former president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, argues that the foundational aspects of EU-China relations remain unchanged without substantial reform from Beijing. Despite being critical of Washington’s role, he believes Europe’s alignment is still substantially linked to the U.S.
In summary, while the EU and China are significant trade partners, their relationship is not an alliance but a pragmatic engagement. The global political climate continues to shift as the EU faces the challenge of balancing its interests with those of both the U.S. and China, all while navigating complex internal dynamics and external pressures.