After 12-day war and truce, Iran questions future

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    Amidst a backdrop of ongoing unrest, Iranians find themselves returning to their everyday routines, grappling with the consequences of a recent 12-day conflict with Israel and the unexpectedly swift ceasefire arranged by the U.S. Their minds remain clouded by anxiety as they contemplate the likely response from their governing body.

    Human rights advocates are sounding the alarm, indicating that Iran is intensifying executions of political dissenters and prisoners. Since Israel’s attacks commenced on June 13, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders, Tehran has reported executing six individuals for espionage, with three executed on a single day, Wednesday.

    Four Iranian citizens who spoke candidly about the situation hold the belief that a dwindling portion of the population staunchly backs the regime. These citizens worry that Israel’s military actions might stifle any hopes for a transformative political change that challenges the governmental system established by the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For their safety, these individuals requested anonymity or only provided their first names.

    “We are clueless about what actions the authorities may take,” expressed Shirin, a 49-year-old resident of northern Tehran, Iran’s capital. She imagines that authorities might vent their frustrations over the war outcomes by targeting ordinary citizens.

    The fear of repression is palpable. Nooshin, a 44-year-old homemaker in Tehran, remarked that historical patterns suggest the government might resort to suppressive measures in response to internal or external pressures—a tactic seemingly already in play following President Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire between the two nations.

    “After crisis events like these, the Iranian establishment has a consistent habit of punishing its citizens, potentially endangering many opponents,” she explained. With accelerating death penalty cases, apprehensions are mounting about a possible increase in executions akin to those following the Iran-Iraq war during the 1980s.

    According to Mahmood Amiry Moghaddam from the Iran Human Rights Organization based in Norway, “Post-ceasefire, the Islamic Republic will likely boost its repression to conceal military failures, quash public protests, and ensure its regime’s longevity.” He cautioned that numerous prisoners might face execution in the upcoming weeks.

    Iranian authorities, like Esmail Baghaei from the Foreign Ministry, justified their actions, praising what they see as the unity of their people. “Our citizens have demonstrated firmness in safeguarding national security and sovereignty,” he told a media outlet recently.

    State-controlled media, grappling with sporadic internet outages, have been attempting to push a unity narrative reminiscent of tactics during the Iran-Iraq war, interspersed with nationalistic and religious rhetoric. Elias Hazrati, a media figure close to President Masoud Pezeshkian, conceded the country’s stark political and social divides, urging unity in facing external threats.

    Despite the ominous climate, some residents remain hopeful. Mahshid, from Qazvin, cherishes optimism about post-war changes and anticipates maintained leniency concerning the obligatory headscarf, or hijab. “Once this emotional storm passes, I’m confident the government will continue its lenient stance on the hijab and personal liberties,” she shared confidently.

    In agreement, an anonymous researcher in Tehran conveyed doubts about the government’s ability to reverse the recent socio-political progresses, especially on women’s rights regarding headscarves. “Post-Israel’s interventions, authorities’ power has been diminished, putting stringent social policies out of reach,” he speculated, citing rumors of impending ease on social media restrictions.

    Amidst these broader changes, the researcher pointed out the tactical damages inflicted on various civilian infrastructures across Tehran, with a specific airstrike near Midan-e Tajrish causing water issues. Despite the peaceful backdrop, challenges like power shortages prevail due to long-standing economic mismanagement, spurring public demand for reform.

    “Inconsistencies, like two-hour daily power cuts, persist like before,” he noted. As Iran attempts to stabilize post-conflict, factions supporting the clerical regime align with nationalist sentiments, largely ignoring the public’s desire for considerable reform. However, the public seems divided; demonstrations portray a victory narrative, but many Iranians assert their disapproval of the conflict.