DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The 12-day hostilities between Iran and Israel have subsided, leaving Iran’s leadership facing the challenge of rebuilding in a transformed region. Israel’s airstrikes have significantly disrupted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, targeting high-ranking officials and reducing its stockpile of ballistic missiles. Furthermore, the nation’s nuclear facilities suffered considerable damage, though the extent remains a point of debate.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at 86, stayed hidden during the conflict and has not been seen publicly since a video message released a week ago. The conflict obliterated much of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of regional allies and militias that faced severe setbacks due to Israeli attacks following Hamas’ assault on October 7, 2023. Despite expectations, support from China and Russia was not forthcoming. Domestically, Iran continues to grapple with longstanding challenges, including an economy ravaged by sanctions, corruption, and poor governance.
The Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, noted in a recent analysis that Iran’s leadership must now focus on preserving the ceasefire to allow for internal restructuring and improved security. Israel’s precision in targeting Iran’s military leaders and nuclear experts underscored the depth to which its intelligence agencies have penetrated Iranian ranks, raising concerns over disloyalty within Iran’s leadership.
Rebuilding the Revolutionary Guard presents another formidable task in an atmosphere of distrust. General Esmail Qaani, head of the Guard’s Quds Force, is one visible surviving leader, appearing in videos at a pro-government rally in Tehran. On the political front, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has taken on an increasingly significant role, akin to a prime minister, making key announcements, including those about the ceasefire.
Khamenei may need to reassess his security strategy, as the recent conflicts exposed the vulnerabilities in Iran’s efforts to maintain a buffer zone through its alliances. Questions loom over whether Khamenei will pursue nuclear arms, a decision that would mark a significant shift for a nation claiming its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. Some analysts believe internal pressure to develop a nuclear weapon is mounting given Iran’s current vulnerabilities.
Opting for nuclear armament would entail substantial risks. The exact damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unknown, but reconstruction efforts, whether they span months or years, would have to evade foreign intelligence scrutiny. Israel’s response to renewed activity could reignite conflict. Alternatively, Khamenei could engage in diplomatic talks with the U.S. to ease sanctions. U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff indicated ongoing dialogues that may lead to long-term peace and relief for Iran.
Domestically, Iran could face intensified repression. The already struggling economy may incite further unrest, reminiscent of past protests over economic strife and state-imposed regulations. Power outages and inflation might stir discontent. The economy’s instability was temporarily masked by wartime disruptions but promises to resurface as daily life resumes.
Past demonstrations over increased fuel prices and the death of Mahsa Amini highlight the public’s volatility. Despite the conflict’s pause, more restrictive measures could emerge, with conditions potentially leading to reactions reminiscent of previous nationwide protests that resulted in thousands of detentions and significant bloodshed.
With Khamenei’s eventual successor uncertain, the conflict may expedite a political shift, bolstering military influence in governance. Traditionally, Shiite clerics have wielded supreme authority in Iran, with a panel selecting the next leader. Candidates vary in ideology, but the armed forces and Guard may increasingly assert their authority.
“There is growing speculation that the country might transition from a cleric-ruled Islamic Republic to one dominated by military governance,” stated analyst Hamidreza Azizi. Recent conflicts have made such scenarios more conceivable, indicating that Iran’s political future may lean towards a regime with stronger security and military elements.