In the aftermath of Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu envisioned a significant transformation in the Middle East. Fast forward 20 months, the region has indeed seen drastic changes as Israeli military victory actions have nearly dismantled the Palestinian militant organization Hamas in Gaza, weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, removed Bashar Assad from power in Syria, and undermined Iran’s regional strategies.
Netanyahu, who has consistently labeled Iran’s influence over regional proxies as a malign threat, is likely to perceive this development as a validation of his long-standing stance against Tehran’s expansionism. With its regional allies significantly neutralized, Iran’s strategic network has been dismantled, altering the balance of power across Israel’s frontiers.
However, this shift has come at a dire cost. The initial attack on October 7 remains the deadliest incident in Israel’s history, leading to international estrangement due to Israel’s intense military response, which has resulted in massive casualties among Palestinians and left Gaza in ruin. Despite its strategic advantages, this situation leaves several unresolved questions regarding the region’s future stability.
Meir Litvak, an expert from the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies in Tel Aviv, points out that while the impact on Iran’s influence has been significant, the broader issues within the Middle East remain unresolved. Netanyahu’s relentless campaign against Iranian-sponsored threats underscores his efforts to hinder Iran’s nuclear aspirations and prevent the entrenchment of Tehran’s proxies, which have been strategically placed from Gaza to the Golan Heights.
For decades, Iran has fostered relationships with militant groups across the region to further its geopolitical goals, with affiliations such as Hezbollah and Palestinian militants receiving substantial support. Assad’s Syria has functioned as a corridor for arms destined for Hezbollah, reinforcing Iran’s regional designs. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, have also engaged Israel with missile strikes.
While Hamas had hoped their October 7 assault would mobilize this coalition into a unified offensive, the reality was the opposite, with the alliance disintegrating under external pressures. Despite ongoing combat, Hamas has suffered severe losses, whereas Hezbollah’s attempts to support have not significantly disrupted Israel’s actions against Hamas.
By late September, Israel launched a strategic military campaign that devastated Hezbollah’s leadership, culminating in the elimination of its chief Hassan Nasrallah. This military operation simultaneously destabilized Assad’s regime in Syria, sparking a rebel uprising that quickly deposed him. As Hezbollah’s dominance waned, Israel was emboldened to carry out targeted strikes on Iranian infrastructure, marking an unprecedented level of conflict with Iran.
These developments, in conjunction with Israel’s tactical maneuvers, have arguably shattered the cohesive network Iran once wielded across the Middle East. According to Israeli analyst Nadav Eyal, the longstanding axis of Iranian proxies that posed a significant threat to the region is now dismantled.
Despite the strategic gains, Netanyahu’s declaration of Middle Eastern transformation is not without vast expenditure. Domestic dissatisfaction mounts as Israeli society grapples with the aftermath of the conflict, paired with a tarnished global reputation due to the humanitarian toll in Gaza. While regional dynamics have shifted, the fundamental cause of the conflict—the Israeli-Palestinian discrepancy—remains unresolved and possibly exacerbated.
David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy highlights that the unforeseen changes were catalyzed by the events of October 7, underscoring the volatile nature of political and military maneuvers in such circumstances. Yet, the enduring consequences of these transformations raise concerns about the eventual trajectory Iran might take, especially concerning its nuclear ambitions.
In summary, even as the region experiences a temporary respite from the imminent threats, Netanyahu’s quest to reshape the Middle East has brought about profound and costly transformations that continue to cast shadows over Israel’s future and its quest for peace.