Will Wade has been tirelessly working to transform N.C. State into an immediate powerhouse, part of which involves targeting an entrant for the NBA draft, should the opportunity arise for a return to college.
This strategy isn’t massively risky: The allure of college sports with ample financial incentives has resulted in a noticeable decline in the number of early NBA draft entrants. This year’s draft, launching on Wednesday night, records the lowest total of these prospects in over a decade.
“You can afford to play a long game now,” Wade commented, emphasizing how college athletes are increasingly contemplating their futures. “I can earn as much as I would in the G League or on a two-way contract, and some players are even receiving first-round equivalent money.”
This financial prospect is about to expand even further.
It’s been four years since NCAA rules changed, allowing college athletes to profit through name, image, and likeness (NIL) agreements. This change paved the way for compensation possibilities previously prohibited. Starting July 1, schools can directly pay athletes, as marked by the $2.8 billion House antitrust settlement.
Consequently, Wade successfully signed Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams after the fifth-ranked transfer, according to 247sports, withdrew from the draft.
“If you’re an early entrant and not projected as a top-20, top-22 pick—where the earnings are—you might as well stay in college,” the new Wolfpack coach noted.
This marks a significant shift brought about by the pandemic, deeply influencing college athletics and extending its effects to the NBA. Potential draftees now weigh lucrative college options against uncertain professional basketball futures.
Detroit Pistons president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon observed this trend too, noting, “With the proliferation of NIL money, we see fewer individuals entering their names.”
This year’s decrease in early entrants stands out when compared to figures from the era preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. A surge initially occurred after the pandemic due to extended eligibility, allowing even longstanding seniors to become “early” entrants.
However, as these multiple-year students graduated and left collegiate basketball, numbers dipped beneath pre-pandemic thresholds. This timeline aligns with the July 2021 introduction of NIL agreements, which have evolved from simple paid appearances and social media engagements to organized collectives that provide NIL packages resembling salaries.
As a result:
— Eighty-two players from primarily American colleges appeared on NBA’s early entrants list, representing a 49% drop from 2024’s 162 entrants and a 47% decline from the average between 2016-19 of 153.5;
— Thirty-two players remained after withdrawal deadlines, down from 62 last year and below the 2016-19 average of 72.0;
— Including international hopefuls, the total of 109 declared prospects fell from 201 last year and the 2016-19 average of 205.0;
— Only 46 players stayed in contention, a reduction from 77 in 2024 and a significant decrease from the 2016-19 average of 83.8.
More college athletes are scrutinizing their paths
Duke’s coach Jon Scheyer appreciates the complexities of the draft landscape, particularly for prime candidates and those with uncertain prospects. He views NIL compensation as a “significant paradigm shift.”
“I hope it lets them ponder what’s genuinely good for their development,” Scheyer said. “They can evaluate: ‘Am I genuinely ready for this?’ Not just basing the decision on money. When money becomes the primary factor, we see athletes not staying. The NBA is ruthless. It just is.”
The Blue Devils anticipate having three draft picks in the first round on Wednesday, including potential No. 1 choice Cooper Flagg alongside top-10 prospects Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. They also had players grappling with the draft verdict.
Freshman Isaiah Evans—a promising wing with notable scoring capabilities—opted out rather than pursuing first-round standing. Meanwhile, transfer Cedric Coward from Washington State quickly ascended draft boards post-combine and stayed in contention.
“There’s no replacing the earnings as a top-15, top-20 pick,” remarked Scheyer, entering his fourth year after succeeding Mike Krzyzewski. “If you’re not secured as a first-round choice, why risk it when you can enjoy a solid season and possibly improve or maintain your position next year?”
College compensation is reshaping the draft’s candidate pool
Langdon, a Duke first-round alumnus, has similarly observed this transformation.
His Pistons recently returned to playoffs since 2019, albeit without a first-round pick and only holding a single pick in Thursday’s second round. This dwindling candidate pool could complicate the already inexact science of drafting in this newly evolved setting.
Based on the 2024-25 NBA rookie scale, a mid-first-round selection would yield roughly $3.5 million for a first-year salary. This figure lessens to around $2.8 million at the 20th pick, $2.3 million by the 25th, and $2.1 million for the draft’s final first-round pick.
For comparison, the baseline NBA first-year salary stands at roughly $1.2 million.
“These NIL deals are starting to resemble $3 to $4 to $5 to $6 million contracts,” Langdon highlighted. “Players won’t enter the pool just to slot in as the 25th choice, or even 18th. They prefer returning to college eyeing a next-year lottery designation. With fewer players, there’s less probability of retaining quality prospects at No. 37—math straightforward.”
Current NBA players provide perspective
Stories from Indiana Pacers’ Thomas Bryant and Oklahoma City Thunder’s Isaiah Hartenstein—both recent NBA Finals competitors—reflect these aspects.
Back in 2017, they emerged as consecutive early-first-second round picks (Bryant at 42, Hartenstein at 43), amid a draft saturated with early-entry college players in 33 of prior 41 selections.
Bryant spent two college years with Indiana, leading to NBA tenures across five teams, inclusive of Denver’s 2023 title-winning roster. Would college financial incentives have shifted his trajectory?
“Truth be told, I view it both ways,” Bryant remarked. “For undrafted individuals, it’s understandable; having money is crucial for college survival. So, I get their reasoning.”
“But, personally, I faced adversity. I relied on internal belief, persisted, and vowed to battle fiercely. Even if failure was inevitable, I’d depart with dignity. For others, it’s a different scenario.”
The U.S.-born Hartenstein left for Germany at 11, ultimately getting drafted post-Lithuania stint. “Everyone’s path is distinctive,” he asserted.
“I believe it’s essential to have trustworthy support for guidance,” said Hartenstein, now NBA champion. “I was fortunate having a professional player father guiding me. Considering setups, guaranteed cash is tough to bypass. But, if a favorable NBA situation arises, one doesn’t refuse. It’s a challenging crossroad.”
College increasingly appeals to prospects
At N.C. State, Wade’s strategy with Williams was appealing due to a central role and the chance to improve draft standing.
The 6-foot-6 junior averaged 15.1 points with standout NCAA Tournament showings as the Red Raiders advanced to the Elite Eight, nearing a triumph over ultimate champions, Florida.
“He was projected a second-round pick, but his effort package exceeded potential second-round earnings,” Wade noted. “We deliberated on that carefully, analyzed the numbers, and planned accordingly.”
Nevertheless, navigating the collegiate domain amid these circumstances is arduous. Balancing financial reserves for potential signings entails risks of losing alternatives.
“This is how the world operates, as it should,” Wade asserted. “Without risk, there’s no reward. The most promising players wager on financial prospects, hence they’re in the draft. We aren’t avoiding this.”
And Wade shouldn’t fear, considering the current allure of college life.