When the U.S. joined forces with Israel over the weekend to target Iran’s nuclear sites, Russia responded with sharp criticism. Moscow’s representative at the United Nations claimed that Washington was opening “a Pandora’s Box,” and Iran’s top diplomat soon visited the Kremlin to garner support from President Vladimir Putin.
However, during the Monday meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Putin criticized the strikes, labeling them as “unprovoked aggression,” but provided little beyond verbal rebuke.
According to experts, Russia’s restrained response without any indication of military assistance may leave Iran feeling neglected and indicates Russia’s waning influence in the Middle East. This is a region where Russia is already struggling to maintain a diplomatic equilibrium amidst losing a key ally. Moscow might look at this conflict for short-term gains, including higher oil prices which could potentially alleviate Russia’s faltering economy and shift global focus away from its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Following the onset of Putin’s large-scale assault on Ukraine in 2022, Russia and Iran have strengthened their ties, with Iran delivering Shahed drones, essential to the war effort.
In January 2025, just after a particularly challenging year for Iran, marked by losing regional allies, Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement designed to develop economic, political, and military connections. Yet, the expectations of this agreement remain largely unfulfilled post-Israeli attacks, as it mostly forbids aiding a third party that attacks one of the signatories and is not a defensive pact.
Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, indicated that Iran is dissatisfied with Russia’s level of support against such a formidable adversary as Israel and the U.S.
The Russian government, nonetheless, has rejected any criticism regarding a lack of support. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stressed that critics are attempting to undermine Russian-Iranian relations and reaffirmed Russia’s intentions to develop relations further. Questions about potential Russian military assistance to Tehran went unanswered, with the response contingent on what the Iranian side might request.
Iran finds itself in dire need of new air defense systems, especially since Israeli actions have devastated the majority of its capabilities. However, the probability of Russia fulfilling these requests is slim due to its own needs for the conflict in Ukraine.
Moscow must also maintain a balanced approach concerning Israel, as both nations are militarily active in Syria and generally avoid direct confrontation. Consequently, maintaining equilibrium is crucial.
Diplomatic relations with the U.S. have somewhat improved under President Donald Trump, although tension remains regarding how support for Iran might disrupt Russian-U.S. relations.
While the Israel-Iran conflict presents challenges for Moscow, it also offers advantages, like diverting Western resources and attention from Ukraine. Increasing oil prices could enable Russia to sustain its economy and military efforts.
Despite some attempts to mediate, Russia remains at arm’s length from resolving the conflict directly. Moscow’s capacity to exert pressure on Iran is questionable, given the toll the Ukraine war has taken on its resources.
Meanwhile, Russia focuses on broader geopolitical strategies in the Middle East, making overtures to new Syrian leadership and exploring mutually beneficial transactional agreements elsewhere.
Even if the Islamic Republic emerges from the war intact, Russia’s performance as an ally might embolden regional players like Egypt and Turkey to reassess their relationships with Moscow. Russia’s reliability as a partner may be in question.