The recent U.S strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have prompted the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to issue warnings of a “heightened threat environment.” Additionally, the FBI, as stated by its deputy director, is on full alert to mitigate any potential retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, cities like New York have ramped up their security measures in anticipation of possible threats.
So far, no credible threats have materialized in the days following the covert American military actions. Furthermore, it remains uncertain how the potential ceasefire announced by the U.S. between Israel and Iran will impact any impending threats or its longevity.
The concern for potential retaliation is not unfounded, given Iran’s history of attempts to target political figures on U.S soil. Iranian-backed cyber attacks have also been noted against American targets over the years. In recent times, rather than large-scale violence, the U.S. has accused Iran of engaging in murder-for-hire plots using operatives, including Russian mobsters, to target public figures and dissidents. Despite Tehran’s continuous denials, the FBI and the Justice Department have effectively thwarted such plots.
“It’s complicated,” as noted by Ilan Berman from the American Foreign Policy Council. The disconnected nature of these operations means they often falter before reaching completion. Whether Iran will resort to this tactic again or attempt something bigger remains uncertain. Jon Alterman, an expert in Middle Eastern dynamics, suggests Iran might endeavor to project strength to its populace, stressing that the capability to attempt such acts is often a different question from their successful execution.
Following Saturday evening’s attack, officials from the FBI and DHS held talks with local law enforcement to update them on potential dangers, reported Michael Masters of Secure Community Network. The DHS has since released a bulletin warning against potential violence, specifically highlighting foreign terror organizations calling for attacks against American assets.
On the subject of threats, a significant and notable instance includes the Justice Department’s disclosure in November of a disrupted plan to assassinate former President Donald Trump before the 2024 election. The scheme reportedly stemmed from the regime’s anger over a 2020 strike that killed Iranian General Qassim Soleimani. A network associated with the Iranian government was implicated in this plot, leveraging criminal contacts for surveillance and potentially a murder-for-hire scheme.
Reports also uncovered a plot against John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser before being dismissed. The alleged plan, involving an offer of $300,000 for assassination, was orchestrated by a person within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. However, the recruited assassin was unknowingly in collaboration with FBI informants.
Targeting dissidents, such as Masih Alinejad, further underscores Iran’s contentious tactics. Efforts to suppress her activism, which encouraged Iranian women to defy oppressive sartorial laws, included using Russian mob associates funded by Iranian authorities in murder-for-hire plots. The persistent threat was also evidenced by alleged plans in 2011 to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, plotting a bombing during a meal.
This series of incidents emphasizes a persistent and evolving threat landscape, driven by complex geopolitical dynamics and Iran’s pursuit of agendas through unconventional and surreptitious means.