DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — As negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the details of a U.S.-led proposal are becoming more apparent, though an agreement remains uncertain amidst the complex diplomatic scene.
Securing a nuclear deal is on the list of diplomatic challenges for U.S. President Donald Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. The proposed deal could lead to the U.S. easing economic sanctions on Iran, provided Tehran significantly curtails or stops its uranium enrichment activities. The stakes are high; failure to reach an agreement could escalate tensions in a region already tense due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Economic instability could worsen in Iran, leading to increased domestic unrest. As threats of military action by Israel or the U.S. loom, Tehran might cease cooperating with international nuclear watchdogs, potentially pursuing nuclear weapon capabilities. With five rounds of discussions already held in Muscat and Rome, understanding the U.S. offer is critical as Iran considers its options.
Details of the potential deal have surfaced, reportedly involving a nuclear consortium to manage uranium enrichment for Iran and other nearby states. While reports suggest Iran might still enrich uranium up to 3% purity, it remains unclear if they would be required to surrender their enrichment program entirely. Iran’s 2015 deal, under then-President Obama, permitted enrichment to 3.67%, sufficient for nuclear power plants but well below the 90% needed for weapons production. Currently, Iran enriches uranium to 60%, dangerously close to weapons-grade material.
In response to these negotiations, Iranian state media has disseminated details consistent with American proposals, suggesting elements positively received by Iranian officials. Despite limited direct coverage by Iranian media on the talks, other Iranian authorities have mentioned consortium-style arrangements involving regional cooperation under U.S. oversight.
Abolfazl Zohrehvand, a prominent Iranian parliamentary figure, has discussed this prospect. He mentioned the possibility of a collaborative effort involving countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, potentially delivering enrichment services while maintaining critical oversight of uranium supplies. The potential location for such a setup remains undetermined, though the Persian Gulf is home to numerous islands that could host the initiative.
Historical attempts at consortium agreements have previously stalled, but current diplomatic shifts between Gulf Arab states and Iran have revived the idea. Fereidoun Abbasi, a former Iranian nuclear official, has similarly commented on using disputed islands in regional ventures. However, this suggestion raises questions about Iran’s technological capabilities and political willingness to involve the U.S.
The coming days may see Iran issue a formal response, possibly facilitated by Oman, which has played a mediator role. The prospect of a sixth negotiation round lingers, though currently, no specifics have been disclosed. With religious festivities marking the Eid al-Adha next week, timelines for talks are constrained.
Time pressures intensify these diplomatic efforts as Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile raises concerns about their nuclear aspirations. Western countries threaten to censure Iran via the International Atomic Energy Agency Board, potentially invoking U.N. sanctions if no resolution is achieved by October, the expiry of key authority from the 2015 nuclear deal.
“Negotiating an agreement reducing Iran’s proliferation risk is still possible, but time is limited,” noted Kelsey Davenport, a nonproliferation expert. “As Iran teeters on the brink of nuclear weaponization, any escalation could derail talks and heighten the threat of conflict.”
With tensions simmering, the diplomatic clock ticks as both sides weigh the costs and benefits of further negotiations.