Bulgaria is on the brink of realizing its long-standing ambition of joining the euro currency union, which promises to tighten its bonds with the wealthier nations of Western Europe. However, the government faces a hurdle: a surge in populist opposition towards adopting the euro, coinciding with a significant decision from European Union authorities.
The apprehensions about escalating inflation, rising poverty, and the uncertainty involved are intertwined with prevalent disinformation circulating on social media. These efforts aim to sway public sentiment against the euro. This dissent is in line with the increasing popularity of populist and anti-EU movements throughout Europe, exploited by nationalist and pro-Russian figures in Bulgaria—a nation grappling with widespread corruption and poverty.
A retired citizen, Tanya Ignatova, voiced concerns, “Adopting the euro will push us closer to poverty. Prices being in euros will make a difference.” Mario Georgiev, another retiree, echoed similar sentiments, stating, “Bulgaria isn’t prepared for the euro right now. Maybe in the future, but not now.”
A large public demonstration ensued in Sofia, demanding a referendum on switching from the Bulgarian lev to the euro. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the pro-Russian Varazhdane party, addressed the crowd, asserting, “Bulgaria has proclaimed its choice for freedom—supporting the Bulgarian lev!”
Nonetheless, there is support for the euro among many Bulgarians, who believe the benefits of EU membership eclipse the currency concerns. As 26-year-old Konstantin Bozhinov put it, “Inflation is something we face now and will face in the future.” The Bulgarian government remains committed to deeper European integration amid escalating geopolitical tensions. It has requested an assessment of its compliance with the criteria, such as low inflation, sound government finances, and alignment with EU laws. The European Commission will publish its findings soon.
Pending a favorable outcome from the commission, other EU member states will evaluate Bulgaria’s application. Previous evaluations, like the one in 2022, revealed issues with inflation levels, though this economic indicator has since reduced. Bulgaria’s President, Rumen Radev, has fueled anti-euro sentiments by suggesting a referendum, reflecting public worry about inflation and reduced purchasing power—a response to earlier protests where EU offices in Sofia faced vandalism.
The president’s initiative was met with rejection by the pro-European parliamentary majority, who accused Radev of aligning with Russian interests to derail euro adoption efforts. Recent data from the EU’s extensive Eurobarometer survey indicate that 50% of Bulgarians oppose the euro, while 43% are supportive. This stands in contrast to increasing euro confidence seen throughout the rest of the EU.
Since joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria has faced political turbulence and corruption, sparking euroscepticism among its 6.4 million population. Analysts point to foreign disinformation campaigns stirring economic anxiety, leading to fabricated concerns over increased poverty. Social networks overflow with false assertions from eurozone opponents, including claims about forced saving expenditures and digital euro conspiracies.
According to Ognyan Minchev, head of the Institute for Regional and International Studies in Sofia, “Bulgarians are being heavily misled, with rampant dissemination of baseless fears.” From an economic perspective, experts argue that adopting the euro would not immediately transform Bulgaria’s economic landscape. The nation’s currency, the lev, has been legally pegged to the euro for years, maintaining a stable exchange rate of 1 lev to 51 euro cents.
Joining the euro could lower borrowing costs, facilitate price comparisons domestically and abroad, and eliminate currency exchanges when traveling within the eurozone. It would also signify further integration into the EU and its substantial economic network, including participation in the European Central Bank’s interest rate deliberations.
EU member states agree to adopt the euro eventually, yet only 20 out of 27 have done so, with Croatia being the most recent under this timeline. Bulgaria’s public debt remains relatively low, at just 24.1% of GDP—far below the euro membership threshold of 60%, starkly contrasting with Greece’s high debt spotty concealed upon its euro entry in 1999, triggering subsequent financial crises within the eurozone.
As Zsolt Darvas, senior fellow at the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank, noted, “Bulgaria’s fiscal prudence means it poses no fiscal threat to the eurozone.” While concerns over inflation persist, historical data from previous euro adoptees illustrates only minimal inflation growth—often less than 1%—upon adopting the currency, with some businesses like restaurants adjusting pricing for such shifts.