WARSAW, Poland — The presidential runoff in Poland witnessed a stunningly close race, with exit polls indicating a virtual tie between the two contenders. This election could significantly steer Poland’s political future and its relationships within the European Union.
Initially, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafa? Trzaskowski was shown to have a slight edge over his rival, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki. However, subsequent “late poll” data shifted, recording Nawrocki at 50.7% and Trzaskowski at 49.3%. Given the margin of error, the contest remains too close to call definitively.
Despite the ambiguity of the official results, both candidates have claimed victory during addressing their supporters in Warsaw. Trzaskowski confidently told his followers, “We won,” amidst chants celebrating his leadership. Expressing hope, he stated, “This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history,” vowing to focus on unity and future prospects.
Nawrocki, speaking at a separate event, was equally optimistic. “We will win and save Poland,” he declared, asserting the necessity of securing a victory that night. The final election results were anticipated on Monday.
This decisive runoff featured Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-European Union figure, against Nawrocki, a conservative historian endorsed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with U.S. conservatives. The neck-and-neck race reflects the country’s pervasive social and political rift.
The election’s outcome will determine whether Poland veers toward nationalist policies or embraces more liberal democratic principles. With President Andrzej Duda concluding his tenure, the president-elect will wield substantial influence over Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government, especially concerning legislative veto power.
Nawrocki expressed intent to oppose any consolidation of power by Donald Tusk, saying, “We will not allow Donald Tusk’s grip on power to be completed.”
The runoff follows a highly competitive first voting round on May 18, where Trzaskowski garnered just over 31% of votes compared to Nawrocki’s near-30%, leading to an elimination of 11 other candidates.
Katarzyna Malek, a 29-year-old voter in Warsaw, initially voted for a different candidate in the first round but chose Trzaskowski in the runoff due to his diplomatic competence and potential to lower domestic tensions. “I hope there will be less division, that maybe there will be more dialogue,” she shared.
The campaign highlighted deep ideological divides. Trzaskowski, 53, has advocated for restoring judicial independence, loosening abortion laws, and fostering cooperation with European allies. Nawrocki, 42, has represented traditional Polish values, maintaining skepticism toward the EU.
Nawrocki’s candidacy has encountered allegations of past connections with criminal figures and involvement in a violent incident, which he refutes while admitting participation in what he calls “noble” street battles. His supporters, seeing these claims as politically driven, remain steadfast in their backing.
Addressing his rally, Nawrocki stated, “We managed to unite the entire patriotic camp, those who want a normal Poland, without illegal migrants—a safe Poland.” This was a nod to supporters of far-right candidates who backed him in the runoff.
Some Nawrocki supporters dismissed concerns about his past as unfounded, emphasizing accountability for Trzaskowski’s own errors as mayor. W?adys?awa W?sowska, an 82-year-old ex-teacher, revered traditional values. “I’m a right-wing conservative. I love God, the church and the homeland,” she elaborated, favoring Nawrocki as the patriotic choice over Trzaskowski, whom she accused of foreign allegiance.
The election resonated on the international stage, given ongoing security anxieties due to Russia’s activities in Ukraine. Both candidates endorse aid to Kyiv, although Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for Ukraine while Trzaskowski supports it potentially.
Nawrocki’s campaign resonated with narratives common on the American right, emphasizing traditional principles. His followers argued Trzaskowski, with a pro-EU stance, might cede crucial Polish control to larger EU nations, like France and Germany.
Europe’s centrist observers regarded Trzaskowski favorably, hoping he would protect democratic norms amidst global authoritarian pressures.