BANGKOK — Recent attacks between India and Pakistan have heightened tensions along the border they share, as the two nuclear-armed neighbors exchange missile and bomb strikes. Pakistan has interpreted these attacks as acts of war, further escalating the situation. Both nations have issued contradictory statements regarding the events, making it challenging to discern the actual series of occurrences. Complicating matters, there’s an extensive spread of misinformation and manipulated visuals cluttering the internet, according to the Soufan Center, a think tank.
This web of disinformation is further tangled by each country’s need to maintain national pride and avoid admitting vulnerabilities. Direct evidence through independent verification remains scarce due to ongoing skirmishes; however, certain aspects can be extracted from formal announcements to provide clarity on the dispute.
On Saturday, Pakistan reported launching hypersonic missiles from its JF-17 Thunder jets—aircraft developed with Chinese cooperation—that targeted and destroyed India’s Russian-built S-400 air defense system in Punjab. India rebutted these allegations, claiming to offer proof of the invulnerability of the site in due course. Praveen Donthi from the International Crisis Group describes the situation as “effectively at war” despite the absence of formal declarations and points out that misinformation has incited civilian panic, especially in regions near the frontlines.
Pakistan also declared it employed Fatah-II missiles against an Indian missile storage facility and two airbases, retaliation that Indian officials have acknowledged, claiming they struck back at Pakistani military installations. The precise damage resulting from these attacks is unverified, although Pakistan asserted it intercepted most Indian missiles while responding to India’s counter-attacks.
Pakistan additionally alleged its air force downed five Indian aircraft, encompassing three French-made Rafales, a Russian SU30MKI, and a MiG-29, shortly after India launched an initial offensive early Wednesday. Pakistani officials remarked that its air force fully mitigated casualties, securing all aircraft post-engagement. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif corroborated these claims, emphasizing restraint in not shooting more aircraft down, indicating involvement of approximately 80 Indian planes overall.
However, India has not confirmed any losses, even with evidence of aircraft wreckages found across multiple locations. Verification remains elusive, partly due to the lack of live witness accounts or video footage capturing the conflict. Nonetheless, pieces of Indian aircraft were located, affirming their air operations that targeted at least nine sites.
There is a likelihood that Pakistan utilized surface-to-air missiles instead of risking their planes, drawing from an arsenal primarily comprised of Chinese-manufactured systems. The success of surface-to-air operations has been well-documented, notably in the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Pakistan’s fleet includes U.S.-made F-16s, French Mirage, and the new Chinese-designed J-10C and JF-17, alongside both American and Chinese missile systems like the PL-12 and PL-15. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar explained to lawmakers that a J-10C might have been instrumental in taking down Indian planes, possibly using Chinese-built missiles. This marks a gradual shift towards utilizing Chinese technology compared to Pakistan’s previous reliance on American support.
Interestingly, information on Pakistan deploying Chinese jets led to a boost in trading for AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, the manufacturer of the J-10C and JF-17, whose stock flourished on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, Dassault Aviation, which produces the Rafale jets that Pakistan contends were shot down, saw a decline on the Paris Stock Exchange, though shares stabilized by Thursday.
India has yet to disclose specifics around military assets engaged in these strikes, but maintains its focus was directed at strategic sites associated with planned terror activities against it. India presented video documentation of these retaliatory actions, hinting pinpointed strikes on particular targets, spanning locations in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and interior Pakistan. On the contrary, Pakistan contended that the attacks led to civilian casualties, including women and children, and resulted in significant structural damage, encompassing religious edifices.
Both nations have engaged in missile and aerial bomb dealings, with indicators suggesting drone-utilization in bombing endeavors on select hostile domains. Pakistan also cited the successful downing of several drones during the hostilities.