WASHINGTON—For the fifth consecutive month, American confidence in the economy has taken a downward turn, reaching its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to growing concerns over the potential economic impact of tariffs. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell by 7.9 points in April, landing at 86, a figure not seen since May 2020. A significant number of consumers, nearly a third, anticipate that hiring will decelerate in the months ahead, an outlook comparable to the sentiments of April 2009, during the peak of the Great Recession.
This bleak consumer outlook is primarily rooted in the widespread tariff policies enacted by President Donald Trump, causing most Americans to predict an increase in prices. Furthermore, about half of those surveyed fear the likelihood of an impending recession, as per a study by a notable center.
Renowned economist Carl Weinberg shared in an email that “Rattled consumers spend less than confident consumers,” emphasizing the detrimental effects on growth if confidence continues to dwindle. The short-term expectations of Americans regarding their income, business conditions, and job market prospects saw a drastic drop of 12.5 points to 54.4, marking the lowest point in over 13 years. This figure falls considerably short of the 80-point threshold, which generally signals an impending recession.
The concrete impacts of these pessimistic sentiments will become clearer shortly. On Wednesday, the government plans to release data on economic growth for the first quarter, with economists predicting notable slowdowns in consumer spending following a robust holiday season. Additionally, the Labor Department’s upcoming report on employment and the unemployment rate is anticipated to show continuous job growth, albeit potentially at a reduced pace.
Consumer confidence has also been shaken by earlier fluctuations in stock and bond markets this month. Despite a recovery in major U.S. markets in recent days, the S&P 500 is down 6% for the year, while the Dow Jones has decreased by 5%. Most notably, the tech-focused Nasdaq has seen a 10% decline in 2025.
The Conference Board highlighted that mention of tariffs has reached an all-time high in consumer responses this month, with President Trump instituting a broad 10% tariff on nearly all imports and a steep 145% tariff on a significant portion of goods from China, in addition to separate tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars.
With the economic outlook dimming, even more Americans are bracing for a potential recession, with those expecting an economic downturn in the next year reaching their highest levels in two years. A decline in the intent to purchase homes or cars in the coming six months has been noted, coinciding with a sluggish start to the spring homebuying season due to high mortgage rates and increasing prices.
Furthermore, Americans indicated plans to reduce spending on services, with international travel intentions dropping significantly—from 24.1% in December to just 16.4%. Additionally, the willingness to splurge on dining experiences plunged sharply, marking one of the most significant decreases on record in April, according to the Conference Board’s findings.