WASHINGTON — Recent developments have seen the National Weather Service announcing severe staffing cuts, prompting the reduction or elimination of critical weather balloon launches at several northern U.S. locations. These changes have raised alarms among meteorologists and former agency leaders, citing potential declines in the accuracy of weather forecasts as severe weather season approaches.
Typically conducted twice daily at around 100 sites, these weather balloon launches yield vital data that meteorologists rely on to predict weather events. Eight experts within the meteorological community, along with previous high-ranking officials at the agency’s parent body, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have voiced concerns over the cutback, deeming it a critical error.
Weather balloons are launched to altitudes of 100,000 feet, equipped with radiosondes that gather essential atmospheric data like temperature, humidity, and wind metrics. This information is deemed irreplaceable by experts such as D. James Baker, former NOAA head during the Clinton era, for its role in enhancing weather forecasts. Baker expressed a firm stance against reducing such observational activities during his tenure, reiterating the fundamental role of weather balloons in forecasting.
Environmental concerns have been echoed by University of Oklahoma professor Renee McPherson, who labeled these reductions as perilous. Ryan Maue, former NOAA chief scientist, criticized the halt in balloon launches, warning that it could undermine U.S. weather prediction capabilities, causing global embarrassment for NOAA.
Launch operations in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota, have been completely halted due to staffing shortages, as per a recent notice by the Weather Service. Meanwhile, reductions from twice to once daily launches will affect locations in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming.
Earlier in the year, the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency executed extensive layoffs, reportedly dismissing over 1,000 NOAA employees. Affected staff received notification of continued pay despite being instructed not to report for duty.
Further cutbacks were revealed earlier this month for Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine, following the cessation of balloon launches in Kotzebue, Alaska in late February. This translates to reduced or discontinued launches at 11 sites, representing approximately one in nine of all U.S. launch stations.
An examination by meteorologists Jeff Masters and Tomer Burg estimates that 17% of balloon sites are now underperforming or inactive due to various challenges, including a helium shortage and coastal degradation.
According to weather service spokesperson Susan Buchanan, while reduced data inputs may potentially affect forecast accuracy, the precise future impacts remain speculative.
Kristen Corbosiero, a meteorology professor at the University at Albany, noted the troubling gaps in the launch network, highlighting potential forecast challenges as severe weather conditions loom.
Highlighting the urgency, McPherson pointed to the heightened risk of severe tornado events, especially alarming east of the Rocky Mountains as peak season approaches in April and May.
Elbert “Joe” Friday, a former National Weather Service Director, emphasized the irreplaceable value of weather balloons in understanding atmospheric conditions that crucially influence storm severity.
Though satellites and other technological tools offer robust data, experts affirm that weather balloons provide indispensable insights into atmospheric dynamics that play a key part in predictive modeling.
The Northern U.S. regions affected are closely aligned with the jet stream’s path, adding a layer of complexity to the forecasting process due to the absence of regular observations, as underscored by McPherson and Corbosiero.
Baker, along with Rick Spinrad, another NOAA veteran, both reaffirmed the indispensable role weather balloons play, particularly for forecasting precipitation patterns.
The tradition of launching weather balloons dates back to the 1930s, with significant historical contributions, such as aiding Allied weather forecasts during World War II, recalled by Friday.
Each balloon launch demands a meticulous process, consuming roughly three to five hours of labor from setup to data analysis, as Friday recounted from personal experiences launching in harsh conditions in Alaska.
It remains a task filled with dedication despite challenges, Friday noted.
