In Ankara, Turkey, recent developments in Syria have intensified the already strained relationship between Turkey and Israel. The differing agendas of the two nations concerning Syria now appear to be setting them on a potential collision course.
Turkey, having long supported opposition factions against Assad, has become a pivotal player in the Syrian landscape. It is pushing for a stable, united Syria with a centralized authority. Recently, Turkey hailed an agreement between Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate with the national government and military.
Conversely, Israel harbors deep skepticism towards Syria’s interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, due to his connections with al-Qaida. Israel is also cautious about Turkey’s sway over Damascus, preferring a fragmented Syria to prevent the nation from becoming a stronghold for Iran and its allies.
“Syria has turned into a proxy battleground for Turkey and Israel, each viewing the other as a regional rival,” stated Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institute. “The discordance in their views on Syria is potentially hazardous.”
In the aftermath of Assad’s downfall, Israel occupied areas in southern Syria, claiming it was to keep hostile forces at bay. The new Syrian government and the UN argue that Israel’s actions breach a 1974 ceasefire agreement and demand their withdrawal. Israel has hit leftover military assets from Assad’s regime and plans for a sustained presence there.
Experts speculate that Israel is wary of Turkey’s potential to augment its military footprint in Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has conducted operations in northern Syria to oust Kurdish militias connected to the PKK and continues to exert influence through military installations and alliances with anti-Assad groups.
Turkish defense officials revealed ongoing cooperation with Syria to bolster security and announced a planned military delegation visit. Nimrod Goren from the Mitvim Institute remarked that while Turkey supports a unified and stable Syria, Israel’s preference for fragmentation stems from security considerations against potential threats from Syria’s consolidation.
Israel insists it will not accept a Syrian military incursion south of Damascus, warning of invasion if necessary to shield the Druze community amid clashes with new Syrian security forces.
The once-close ties between Turkey and Israel have been marked by tension, primarily due to President Erdogan’s criticisms of Israeli policies and Israel disapproving of Erdogan’s support for Hamas. Recent events in Gaza further deteriorated relations, with Turkey strongly condemning Israel’s actions and scaling back trade ties.
Turkish authorities, increasingly concerned by Israel’s purported support for regional autonomy demands by the Kurds, Druze, and Alawites, have issued stark warnings against exploiting Syria’s instability.
Tensions escalated with retaliation against Assad’s Alawite supporters following attacks on government forces, resulting in significant civilian casualties. Erdogan condemned this as a threat to Syria’s integrity, while Israel’s deputy foreign minister accused Turkey-backed Islamist factions of ethnic cleansing.
Increased sectarian tensions have deepened Israel’s involvement in Syria, particularly in southern regions where it is providing aid and support to the Druze community.
Interim leader al-Sharaa’s initial diplomatic overtures toward Israel have hardened, recently denouncing Israel’s territorial gains as aggressive and a broader regional security threat.
The escalating conflict between Turkey and Israel over their discordant Syria policies is troubling, noted Aydintasbas. It represents a shift from sporadic disagreements to actual attempts to destabilize one another. The key concern is whether both nations are aware of each other’s limits.
A think tank report recommended that Israel consider engaging with Turkey, leveraging its track record of influence over Syria’s administration, to mitigate the risks of escalating military conflict.
