In Kyiv, Ukraine, the landscape of the ongoing conflict has shifted markedly as the potential for a ceasefire with Russia grows, and Ukraine finds itself losing a significant advantage.
After a surprising campaign in August where Ukrainian forces managed to overtake around 1,300 square kilometers (about 500 square miles) of Russian land, the mood was hopeful in Ukraine. This military achievement was not only a symbolic morale booster but also served as a strategic asset Ukraine’s leaders hoped to use in future peace talks.
However, the gains have been largely reversed in recent months under intense Russian pressure, bolstered by support from North Korean troops. Currently, Ukraine holds only about 30% of the originally seized territory and faces a significant setback following a near-defeat in the city of Sudzha.
As the situation grows more precarious, Ukrainian forces are hurriedly reinforcing their defenses at the border to stop Russia from turning Sudzha into a launch site for further northeastern advances into Ukraine. Politically, the retreat from substantial parts of Russia’s Kursk region presents a considerable challenge for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his military strategists. The initial goal of invading Kursk was to distract Russian forces from within Ukraine and potentially reclaim some of the 20% of Ukrainian land that Russia has occupied since the broader invasion in February 2022. Yet, the retreat risks undermining that strategy.
Dissent has risen among troops and commanders regarding the strategy, as many questioned the wisdom of spreading Ukrainian forces thin, a concern that grew more pronounced as the Kursk withdrawal progressed.
In a broader diplomatic move, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed conditional agreement to a U.S. proposed 30-day ceasefire, though he indicated details remain unresolved. This came closely after the visit of a U.S. envoy to Moscow.
The collapse of Ukrainian control in Sudzha follows months of fierce conflict throughout Kursk, with ongoing fighting expected in peripheral areas as Ukrainian troops attempt to extricate themselves back into Ukraine’s Sumy region. The soldiers voiced fears that Russia’s dominance in the air could obliterate the logistical routes necessary for supporting Ukrainian soldiers still holding positions in Kursk. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington reports Russia has recaptured about 70% of the land Ukraine seized in early August during its Kursk operation.
The path to safety involves a perilous trek for Ukrainian soldiers trying to escape Kursk, as they must cover extensive distances on foot while evading opposition forces. Frustration mounts among some soldiers, who believe a withdrawal should have been ordered weeks prior, which might have lessened casualties.
Within Ukraine’s military ranks, opinions diverge over the recent course of action. While some maintain that entering Russian territory was critical in thwarting Russian advances and hindering their capacity to attack further into Ukraine, others argue the cost—both in lives and lost resources—was too high.
In light of Sudzha’s fall—once Ukraine’s primary stronghold in Kursk—troops express skepticism about their capability to retain their remaining positions in Russian territory. The political ramifications of the defeat linger in their minds.
A Ukrainian commander noted the Russian stall in ceasefire talks, indicating a possible tactic to reclaim Kursk before engaging diplomatically. He lamented the absence of leverage Ukraine once had to negotiate the return of its territory.
The battle dynamics shifted with North Korean soldiers’ involvement, as they proved to be a formidable force, undermining Ukrainian morale and resources. Ukrainian troops described witnessing North Korean soldiers’ remarkable endurance and organization, which added a daunting challenge to an already uphill battle.
Ukrainian forces grappled with insufficient manpower, weaponry, and ammunition, often facing enemy forces that outnumbered them significantly. In the recent phase of the Sudzha battle, as Russian forces intensified their air assault, exhausted Ukrainian troops struggled to maintain supply lines, compounded by logistical challenges as they attempted to regroup.
Meanwhile, strategic encounters highlighted vulnerabilities in Ukrainian defenses, such as the instance where Russian special forces successfully infiltrated Ukrainian lines, emphasizing the dangers inherent in current intelligence sharing limitations.
Despite efforts to execute a calculated withdrawal, Ukraine’s military contends with congested exit routes from Sudzha. Efforts are underway to build fortified defenses along the border to stave off further Russian incursions, yet it remains uncertain if these measures will withstand subsequent assaults. The capability to hold these new defenses, as one commander put it, depends heavily on their available resources and remaining forces.
As the conflict unfolds, Ukrainian soldiers continue to face critical challenges in a war that has come to test their resilience and strategic acumen.
