China, Iran, and Russia have collectively initiated a display of military strength with new joint naval drills in the Middle East. These exercises come amidst mounting concerns over Iran’s burgeoning nuclear ambitions and potential threats from Yemen’s Houthi rebels regarding new assaults on maritime vessels. The activities have been dubbed Maritime Security Belt 2025 and are taking place in the strategically significant Gulf of Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage is critical as it serves as a conduit for one-fifth of the global crude oil trade. Over recent years, the region has been a hotspot for Iranian seizures of commercial vessels and suspected attacks, a cycle that began after the U.S.’s unilateral exit from the nuclear accord with Iran under former President Donald Trump.
This marks the fifth occurrence of these collaborative drills between the three nations. Prior to the commencement, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center issued a notification about GPS disturbances impacting the strait, persisting over several hours. This interference prompted ships to revert to backup navigation systems. According to Shaun Robertson, an analyst with the EOS Risk Group, this likely involved GPS jamming aimed at diminishing the targeting abilities of drones and missiles. Such electronic navigation disruptions are not unprecedented in the region, particularly during periods of heightened tension or military exercises.
Participating Russian naval forces included the corvettes Rezky and Hero of the Russian Federation Aldar Tsydenzhapov, as well as the tanker Pechenega. China contributed its guided-missile destroyer Baotou and the supply ship Gaoyouhu. Both nations refrained from specifying the number of military personnel involved. While China and Russia do not routinely oversee Middle Eastern waters, they hold vital interests in the region, especially concerning Iran. China persists in acquiring Iranian crude oil, often bypassing Western sanctions and availing it at reduced rates compared to prevailing global prices. Furthermore, China remains a primary destination for Iranian exports.
Russia’s ties with Iran have strengthened, leveraging the latter’s drone expertise for its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. State-run Iranian media showcased segments of live-fire maneuvers from night drills, brandishing the country’s military capabilities. This comes after an Israeli offensive targeted Iranian air defenses and missile sites, which, despite attempts by Tehran to minimize the impact, has unsettled the Iranian public. Over recent months, Iran’s nuclear program has progressed, amassing more highly enriched uranium, typically a precursor to weapon production. Although Tehran continues to assert its program’s peaceful intent, belligerent rhetoric about pursuing nuclear weapons is escalating.
Israel and the U.S. have expressly cautioned Iran against acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities, hinting at potential military interventions. Amid these tensions, former President Trump penned a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, proposing renewed talks for a nuclear accord. Tehran, while denying receipt of the letter, has nonetheless been vociferous in its public communications.
Separately, the stability of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is under threat from Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have announced intentions to recommence strikes on Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab el-Mandeb shipping lanes. The Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, last week warned of assaults on Israeli-associated ships, conditional upon the blockade on aid to Gaza. Following the lapse of the stated deadline without reported attacks, Israeli ships have been blocked from approaching Yemeni waters. This volatility has exacerbated the anxiety among maritime operators, especially considering the Houthis’ track record of targeting over a hundred commercial vessels with coordinated missile and drone attacks.
