KYIV, Ukraine — The halting of U.S. military intelligence sharing with Ukraine significantly impacts its military operations, impairing its capability to both launch strikes against and defend itself from the Russian military. This development heightens the urgency for Ukraine to consider a peace agreement advocated by the Trump administration.
The U.S. recently paused the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, which is a substantial setback. However, experts believe Ukraine can sustain its military operations without these shipments for a few months. The immediate and more profound concern is the intelligence-sharing suspension, which strains Ukraine’s ability to effectively track and target Russian forces, given other allies do not possess equivalent resources to compensate for this shortfall.
Why did this decision occur?
This withdrawal of intelligence and military support followed a stormy White House meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. leaders. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance are urging Zelenskyy to accept a ceasefire with Russia, which currently controls a significant portion of Ukraine. The proposed peace deal includes Ukraine surrendering substantial mineral rights to the U.S. to secure future assistance.
The Trump administration argues that Ukraine has not shown a strong enough commitment to pursuing peace with Russia, a step the U.S. deems crucial. American officials indicated that the suspension of intelligence sharing could be a temporary strategy to expedite peace discussions, with recent talks showing a slightly more positive progression.
“We are taking a pause to review this relationship,” explained U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe described the move as a “pause.” Although Zelenskyy has openly expressed readiness to engage in peace talks, he emphasizes that any deal must provide sufficient security guarantees to prevent future Russian hostilities. He has also expressed regret over the disagreements at the White House meeting.
The Trump administration expresses that a deal over mineral rights could strengthen U.S.-Ukraine relations and potentially discourage Russian President Vladimir Putin from contemplating further aggressive actions against Ukraine.
What impact does this have on Ukraine?
The U.S. has not detailed which elements of intelligence-sharing are suspended. However, without this crucial data—including that obtained through the support of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites—Ukraine’s ability to launch attacks within Russian territory will suffer greatly. Operations utilizing U.S. intelligence and weapons systems like the HIMARS and ATACMS, which are vital for counteracting Russian advances, will face significant challenges.
Additionally, U.S. intelligence has served as an early warning system against Russian missile and drone assaults, pivotal in thwarting initial rapid victories hoped for by Putin. Recent successful Ukrainian offensives within Russia have alleviated pressure on their front-line troops and slowed Russian advancement in eastern regions.
Will the U.S. resume intelligence-sharing?
Mike Waltz hinted that intelligence-sharing might resume if Zelenskyy shows willingness to negotiate peace according to terms favorable to Trump. Zelenskyy indicated a desire to reconcile with Trump, but this sentiment has yet to convince the U.S., which remains Ukraine’s primary military supporter since the onset of Russia’s comprehensive invasion.
Ukraine and U.S. officials are slated to meet next week in Saudi Arabia for further discussions, Zelenskyy indicated. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has sought increased support from European nations, most of whom are concerned about the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw aid critical to Ukraine’s defense against Russia.
European Union leaders convened emergency talks to reinforce their own security structures and ensure Ukraine remains protected. It remains uncertain how the U.S.’s suspension might influence intelligence-sharing relationships between Ukraine and other Western allies, including members of the Five Eyes coalition.
French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu affirmed that France will continue sharing military intelligence with Ukraine, and President Emmanuel Macron mentioned discussions are planned with EU leaders on potentially deploying France’s nuclear deterrent to shield Europe from Russian threats.
