In Brussels, European Union heads are on the cusp of convening an urgent summit on Thursday to strategize enhancements in their defense budgets, spurred by signals from the Trump administration suggesting that Europe must shoulder more responsibility for its security. Moreover, there has been a temporary suspension of military aid to Ukraine, adding pressure on EU deliberations.
Recently, President Donald Trump has disrupted long-standing beliefs regarding the United States’ role as a dependable security ally. His warming ties with Russia and a pullback in U.S. support for Ukraine have left European leaders contemplating. On Monday, Trump called for a halt on military aid to Ukraine, encouraging President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to negotiate with Russia, intensifying the need for decisive talks at the Brussels EU summit.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed the severity of the situation in a letter to EU leaders, emphasizing the necessity for increased defense funding and fewer restrictions. She described the current climate as an unprecedented threat, undermining core assumptions held by Europe for years. However, uniting the EU, which often requires unanimous consensus, is no simple task given the current fractures within the bloc.
The primary focus of the summit is to bolster Europe’s security protocols, not to urgently address Ukraine’s immediate requirements for military resources. There are no plans to mobilize more weaponry to counteract the gap left by the U.S. suspension, nor to unfreeze an estimated 183 billion euros in Russian assets held in Belgium. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s forces continue to resist Russian advances along the 1,000-kilometer frontline, particularly in the Donetsk region, amidst heavy casualties.
Thursday’s summit will center on financial preparations to enable the EU to independently ensure its security and support Ukraine while reducing dependency on the U.S. defense paradigm. Germany’s prospective Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, highlighted the need for Europe to swiftly upscale its defense capabilities in light of growing threats. In line with this, the potential German government is considering easing debt constraints for increased defense expenditure.
NATO’s Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, has cautioned that U.S. allies may need to elevate military spending beyond the current levels to deal with potential threats from Russia. The Trump administration hopes for a defense spending increase to 5% of GDP from European countries, exceeding NATO’s recommendation of at least 2%. Presently, the U.S. spends around 3.4% on its military, with a new Pentagon audit possibly impacting this figure.
Von der Leyen has pitched the idea of the European Commission raising up to 150 billion euros from financial markets. This would allow member states to borrow for military enhancements, including aiding Ukraine. Furthermore, the Commission is eyeing the relaxation of debt rules to facilitate defense spending up to 1.5% more of GDP where needed. A move towards placing more arms contracts with Ukraine and integrating its defense industry into the European network is on the table, potentially leveraging Ukraine’s lower production costs to expedite supply lines.
This initiative has been met with approval from Zelenskyy, who highlighted Ukraine’s substantial, low-cost drone production capability as an advantage at the Munich Security Conference. European support for a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine, chiefly promoted by Britain and France, is also under consideration.
The summit occurs at a challenging time for the EU, plagued by internal divisions and a surge in pro-Russian right-wing elements. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia have consistently complicated supportive measures for Ukraine. Despite Hungary’s threats to veto statements from the summit, it cannot obstruct crucial security or funding resolutions.
Additionally, major European nations face domestic political challenges. Germany is about to transition to a new Chancellor, France’s government is in a precarious state, and Spain’s coalition depends on smaller parties for stability. Poland shows leadership under Prime Minister Donald Tusk while facing an upcoming presidential election with strong right-wing contenders. In the Netherlands, the government led by the hard-right Geert Wilders seems to be navigating through instability.
