The NBA is currently on the verge of witnessing an unprecedented shift in its scoring dynamics, sparking debate among basketball enthusiasts and experts alike. With roughly seven weeks remaining in the season, the league is seeing a significant move towards 3-point shooting becoming more dominant than ever before. Presently, 2-point shots constitute 49% of the league’s scoring, and projections suggest this will mark the first season where 2-pointers account for less than half of all scoring.
Breaking down the numbers, a historic low of 49% of points are coming from 2-pointers, while a record high of 36% come from 3-pointers. Meanwhile, free throw contributions are nearing a record low at 15%. This shift is stirring conversations about whether the league faces a dilemma with the increasing reliance on 3-point shots becoming the focal point of gameplay.
“I don’t have any problem with guys and teams shooting a lot of 3s,” commented Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors, a legendary figure in 3-point history and likely to soon surpass the 4,000 milestone in regular-season 3-pointers. “That’s the way that I play, and I love that factor in the game. But you’ve also got to put the work in behind the scenes to take full advantage of it.”
While it’s not an entirely new development, barring any drastic rule changes in the near future, the league will likely break records for both 3-pointers scored and attempted per season. Boston Celtics spearhead the current 3-point trend, though they’re among several teams excelling in this area. A staggering 46% of their points derive from beyond the arc, suggesting they could soon join the ranks of teams like the 2018-19 Houston Rockets and 2020-21 Utah Jazz in scoring more from 3s than 2s.
As Jayson Tatum, Celtics’ All-Star and two-time Olympic gold medalist, noted, “Everybody can’t play the same way. You’ve got to have the right personnel. But, you know, the way we play works for us. So, we play to our strengths.” The Celtics boast the distinction of having eight separate players make 100 3-pointers each over the last two seasons and are on track to achieve this milestone again.
Their strategy reflects a golden ticket for success—winning 33 out of 39 games when making at least 17 3-pointers, compared to just an 8-10 record when falling short of that mark. Last season, this strategy facilitated an unguardable formation leading to a championship title. Iconic players like Curry and Klay Thompson, known as the Warriors’ ‘Splash Brothers,’ epitomize this tactical evolution, proving through their success that hitting 40% of 3-pointers is strategically advantageous compared to shooting 50% from 2-point range.
San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, prior to being sidelined for the season, emphasized the strategic calculation behind this trend. “Right now, I think the defense has to catch up and maybe NBA teams will shoot less 3s,” Wembanyama explained before his season was cut short due to a medical condition. Despite being a center, he led his position in 3-point attempts, showcasing a wider acceptance and implementation of long-distance shooting league-wide.
The transition marks a substantial evolution in basketball strategy. Steve Kerr, coach of the Warriors, acknowledged this ongoing transformation, having been a notable shooter in his playing years. The style and complexion of the game have continuously adapted, with Commissioner Adam Silver recently acknowledging this evolution as a beautiful thing, especially for players mastering long-range shots—regardless of position.
Silver remarked on the cyclical nature of basketball’s trends. Reflecting on critiques of the game’s physicality and dunk dependence two decades ago, he noted that today’s requirement for versatile shooting across all player profiles represents a broader skill set. Consequently, basketball continues to push boundaries, emphasizing strategic intricacies and player competence in a way that champions the beauty of the evolving game.
