SAO PAULO — Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro is facing a crucial decision that will hinge on the judgment of five justices from the nation’s Supreme Court. Within the next three weeks, this panel will determine whether Bolsonaro, along with 33 other individuals, will face trial for allegedly attempting a coup, as charged by Brazil’s prosecutor-general.
To streamline certain judicial cases, which include criminal prosecutions, Brazil’s Supreme Court can convene one of its two permanent five-justice panels, which excludes the chief justice. Changes to these panels typically occur by request or when one of the justices ascends to the role of chief justice, a position that lasts two years in Brazil.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, serving as the rapporteur for the cases against Bolsonaro, has been tasked with presenting the allegations to the panel on which he serves. Notably, the five-justice panel that will deliberate on Bolsonaro’s situation does not include the two justices he appointed: André Mendonça and Kássio Nunes Marques, who are members of the alternate panel.
Bolsonaro’s legal team has expressed a preference for the full Supreme Court to hear the case rather than just the smaller panel. However, the decision on whether the case will be escalated to the full court rests solely with De Moraes as the rapporteur or may be decided by a majority among the justices present on the smaller panel.
If the charges are upheld, the same panel will have the authority to oversee the judicial proceedings regarding Bolsonaro’s defense, including witness testimonies and determining a verdict.
Opinions among Brazilian legal experts are divided on whether to keep the trial limited to the five-justice panel to avoid potential complications during the 2026 presidential elections, or to advance to a full-court ruling that would carry more weight. Luis Henrique Machado, a criminal lawyer and professor at IDP university in Brasilia, stated that it is “virtually impossible” for the panel to dismiss the charges against Bolsonaro, but this does not necessarily imply a conviction.
Bolsonaro vehemently denies any unlawful conduct related to the five charges leveled against him, claiming he is a victim of political persecution.
The five justices who will play a pivotal role in deciding whether Bolsonaro will undergo trial include:
Alexandre de Moraes
As the rapporteur for the cases against Bolsonaro, De Moraes is also a frequent target of criticism from the former president and his supporters. Appointed in 2017 by former President Michel Temer, he is recognized as a conservative voice on the court, with a unique background as a public security secretary. At 56 years old, he has encountered scrutiny from various political figures, including billionaire Elon Musk, who called for his impeachment over claims of judicial overreach.
Cármen Lúcia
Lúcia, designated by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006, also chairs Brazil’s electoral court. Seen as one of the most stringent justices on criminal matters, she has aligned closely with De Moraes in upholding democratic standards. She notably stated that Bolsonaro had failed to respect the presidency in a ruling made two years ago.
Cristiano Zanin
The 49-year-old Zanin functions as the panel’s chair and previously served as Lula’s attorney from 2013 to 2023. His legal work played an instrumental role in overturning Lula’s corruption conviction, facilitating both the former president’s release from jail and eventual victory over Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. He has publicly criticized judicial overreach during Brazil’s extensive Car Wash corruption scandal.
Flávio Dino
Dino, the most recent appointee to the court, transitioned from a former federal judge to a political role before being selected by Lula in 2023. He was serving as justice minister during the January 8, 2023, events when Bolsonaro supporters vandalized government properties, which the prosecutor-general claims was part of a scheme to return Bolsonaro to power. Dino has maintained an outspoken stance against Bolsonaro throughout the years.
Luiz Fux
A moderate figure in the court, Fux was appointed in 2011 during Dilma Rousseff’s presidency. The 71-year-old experienced a challenging relationship with Bolsonaro’s administration, especially while serving as chief justice from 2020 to 2022. Fux previously remarked about the court’s daily encounters with “hostile words or undemocratic acts” during Bolsonaro’s tenure and has often aligned his rulings with De Moraes.
