CHEYENNE, Wyo. — President Donald Trump recently emphasized his dedication to fossil fuels, particularly coal, an energy source known for its reliability but detrimental environmental impact. During a video address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump stated that coal could play a significant role in addressing the rising electricity demands stemming from manufacturing and the extensive data centers essential for artificial intelligence development. “Nothing can destroy coal. Not the weather, not a bomb — nothing,” Trump asserted, emphasizing the abundance of coal in the United States. However, industry analysts believe that any potential resurgence for coal may be short-lived, as natural gas remains a more affordable option, and the renewable energy market is likely to persist regardless of the incumbent president.
Experts note that despite Trump’s enthusiasm for coal, the broader energy market trends have demonstrated that even presidential influence cannot significantly alter coal’s declining phase over recent administrations. According to Rob Godby, an economics professor at the University of Wyoming, while Trump’s policies might delay some coal retirements, they will not shift the fundamental market forces that are driving energy transitions.
A key factor influencing electricity demand is the rapid growth in sectors reliant on energy. For the past 15 years, electricity demand in the U.S. has remained stable, but this trend is set to change. The increasing need for manufacturing, the advent of electric vehicles, and the energy-hungry requirements of data centers for artificial intelligence initiatives are expected to significantly strain the energy infrastructure. Chris Seiple from analyst firm Wood Mackenzie forecasts that electricity demand from data centers may rise by 10-20% annually until 2030, necessitating further power generation capacity to support emerging technologies such as batteries and solar cells.
Power generation assets are traditionally slow to develop, often requiring decades of planning compared to the tech industry, which can rapidly adjust to emerging consumer demands. Godby pointed out the challenges utilities face; they must navigate an unpredictable political environment, making long-term investment decisions challenging in a four-year administrative cycle.
Additionally, Trump’s recent executive orders aimed at fast-tracking energy development and potentially reversing regulations under the Biden administration could provide a temporary reprieve for aging coal plants. This shift in policy is welcome among coal miners, while environmentalists warn of its implications for climate change, noting that electricity generation contributes nearly one-quarter of U.S. carbon emissions, as reported by the EPA. Coal’s ability to provide continuous power makes it appealing, especially when contrasted with the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy, which often requires supplemental battery storage.
However, Godby advises caution, stating that even if tech companies express interest in utilizing coal for power generation, the traditional coal plants are not equipped to deliver quick-response energy solutions as technology demands require. Current trends indicate that utilities may be compelled to delay the closure of coal-fired plants, with this realization already occurring in various states such as Maryland, Indiana, and Illinois.
Several prominent tech corporations, including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, are leading the charge in renewable energy procurement, suggesting that while coal may experience a temporary boost, it is unlikely to achieve a lasting revival. According to Seiple, natural gas is poised to be the primary beneficiary of increased electricity production, with new coal plants unlikely to emerge due to their high costs.
Discussing public coal reserves, the U.S. holds vast quantities, enough to last over 400 years at current extraction rates. The coal industry heavily relies on reserves located on public land in Western states, especially in the Powder River Basin. Trump suspended a moratorium on government coal sales initiated by former President Obama during his first term and has indicated a willingness to reverse Biden’s attempts to restrict coal sales.
During a recent confirmation hearing, Trump’s nominee for Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, expressed strong support for reinstating coal operations, stating the need for more reliable electricity sources. He also highlighted advancements in clean coal technology aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
Internationally, coal production neared record levels last year, fueled primarily by demand in Asian markets, notably in China, which continues to expand its coal-fired power plants. To tap into this growing market, U.S. coal firms have increased exports, despite challenges tied to limited access to West Coast ports. During Trump’s first term, discussions emerged about utilizing military bases for coal exports but did not materialize. Last year, U.S. coal exports were projected to exceed 100 million tons for the second consecutive year, with India, China, Brazil, Japan, and the Netherlands as major destinations.
While there remains a robust global appetite for coal, overall U.S. coal production is expected to continue its downward trend. Godby remarked that reversing this long-term trajectory poses significant challenges.
