The 2020 presidential election in Belarus resulted in authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko being declared the victor with 80% of the vote, sparking widespread allegations of fraud, extensive protests, and a severe crackdown that led to thousands of arrests. To avoid a repeat of unrest as he faces opposition to his long-standing rule, Lukashenko has moved the upcoming 2025 election from its typical August date to the cold of January, when the chances of demonstrations are diminished.
At 70 years old, Lukashenko is running for re-election, with the likelihood of securing a seventh term, continuing a reign most Belarusians have known since the Soviet era. The political landscape in Belarus has shifted significantly, with many of his rivals either imprisoned or in exile, which hampers any substantial challenge to his rule.
Belarus, with a population of approximately 9 million, was once part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991. Positioned between Russia and Ukraine alongside NATO members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, it has relied heavily on Moscow for support. Since his initial election in 1994, Lukashenko has maintained a close alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also has an extended tenure in office.
Lukashenko rose to power amid public discontent over economic struggles due to inadequate free-market reforms. He positioned himself as a leader capable of combating corruption, yet he has primarily relied on Russian subsidies and support to sustain his grip on power. In 2022, Belarus served as a base for Russian military actions against Ukraine, further tightening the bond between the two countries as Lukashenko agreed to host some of Russia’s tactical nuclear assets.
Often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator,” Lukashenko has steadily fortified his oppressive regime, silencing dissent and extending his leadership through elections criticized as neither free nor fair. His administration has reinstated some aspects of Soviet-era economic controls while promoting the Russian language over Belarusian. Beyond this, he has maintained the death penalty, conducting executions using methods reminiscent of older practices.
In an effort to negotiate for increased subsidies from Russia, Lukashenko has intermittently attempted to ease the repressive environment for a brief thawing of relations with the West. However, these attempts ceased following the violent crackdown on dissent after the 2020 presidential election, which was broadly contested both domestically and internationally.
The outcome of that election was met with unprecedented protests, which led to a wave of government repressions. Estimates suggest that over 65,000 individuals were detained, with many enduring severe police beatings. Authorities have shut down numerous independent media outlets and organizations, reinforcing a climate of fear and oppression. Presently, human rights organizations indicate that around 1,300 political prisoners remain incarcerated, including prominent figures like Ales Bialiatski, a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize and head of a major human rights organization.
As the new election draws near, those familiar with the political landscape of Belarus note that Lukashenko is strategically navigating the situation. Although his current term extends to summer, the election was rescheduled ostensibly for him to better wield his influence during the initial phases of strategic planning. Analysts suggest this timing may deliberately minimize the risk of protests in the freezing January weather.
Recently, the Belarusian leader has pardoned about 250 individuals identified as political prisoners, but this move coincides with a surge in repressive actions aimed at stifling any remaining dissent. Authorities have conducted raids targeting relatives and supporters of political prisoners, arresting those engaged in discussions critical of the regime.
The political climate remains fraught, with many key opposition figures either imprisoned or significantly marginalized. Unlike in the previous election, Lukashenko faces minimal opposition, as potential challengers have either been barred from the ballot or silenced altogether. Early voting started earlier this week and will culminate on Sunday.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a leading opposition figure in exile who challenged Lukashenko in the 2020 election, has characterized the forthcoming vote as a sham, urging citizens to reject any candidates on the ballot. Her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, who attempted to run years ago, is still incarcerated.
In a broader geopolitical context, Lukashenko has deepened Belarus’s alignment with Russia. In late 2024, he and Putin formalized security guarantees that could involve the deployment of Russian nuclear assets in Belarus, positioning the country strategically amid escalating tensions with the West due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lukashenko claims that Belarus is preparing to house Russian tactical nuclear weapons and will explore options for advanced missile systems, further intertwining its national security with Russian military strategies.
