CAIRO — Israeli forces have pulled back to the borders of Gaza, marking a significant moment as the first hostages were released and many Palestinians began returning to what is left of their homes following the initial days of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
If the current arrangements hold, it is expected that there will be a cessation of hostilities in Gaza for a minimum of six weeks. During this timeframe, numerous Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are anticipated to be released, alongside an increase in humanitarian aid to the region.
However, questions linger about the sustainability of the ceasefire beyond its initial phase. Tensions outlined in an appendix to the agreement highlight the challenges ahead.
The continuation of the ceasefire hinges on upcoming negotiations that will delve into how Gaza will be managed, while Israel is still insisting on the dissolution of Hamas. These discussions are set against the backdrop of the ongoing reality that Israel could resume military actions to dismantle the militant group, even with hostages still held in captivity.
As part of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israeli troops have withdrawn to a designated buffer zone along Gaza’s border. The buffer zone, confirmed to be approximately 700 meters wide in various locations, has allowed some displaced Palestinians to return to their damaged homes, many of which were destroyed during the Israeli military operations.
However, the return of these residents poses a complex challenge. Israel has long maintained that it must control the movements of Palestinians to prevent Hamas from relocating arms back into northern Gaza near Israeli settlements. Throughout the conflict, the Israeli military restricted access to northern Gaza, establishing a barrier along the Netzarim corridor to clear out the Palestinian population and set up military bases.
According to the agreement’s appendices, starting Saturday, Israel will permit displaced Palestinians to journey north on foot via the main coastal road, without the need for searches. In the subsequent weeks, an additional pathway for foot traffic without inspections is scheduled to open.
To maintain control over vehicle traffic, a yet-to-be-announced private company will conduct searches on Palestinians returning by car to prevent military supplies from reaching northern Gaza. While this measure will take effect on Saturday, details regarding its implementation remain vague.
During this initial phase, Hamas is obliged to release a total of 33 hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The first swap occurred on Sunday, resulting in the release of three Israeli hostages alongside 90 Palestinian prisoners. By the conclusion of the 42-day period, all living women, children, and elderly individuals held by Hamas are expected to be freed.
Currently, approximately 94 hostages, a mix of civilians, soldiers, and foreign nationals, remain in Gaza, with the military operating under the belief that at least one-third of them may not be alive. The next exchange is scheduled for Saturday, and if the deal remains intact, subsequent weekly releases will follow.
The agreement dictates that the 33 hostages released will primarily comprise women, children, and individuals over 50, nearly all of whom are civilians. Notably, the plan includes a commitment for Hamas to release all living female soldiers during the first phase. Should they lack enough living hostages in this category, Hamas may resort to releasing some deceased individuals instead.
In return, Israel will liberate 30 Palestinian women, children, or older individuals for each living civilian hostage freed. This entails releasing over 110 Palestinians serving life sentences. For each female soldier released, Israel will grant freedom to 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.
Many of the prisoners scheduled for release are individuals found guilty of serious offenses. It remains unclear which of these prisoners will be sent abroad or returned to Gaza and which nations will accept them.
The accord also stipulates that Israel will release 1,000 individuals detained since the onset of the conflict, provided they are not implicated in the October 7 Hamas assault that instigated the current violence.
As the first phase concludes, Israel has committed to a gradual reduction of its forces in the Philadelphi corridor, a vital strip along Gaza’s border with Egypt, with a full withdrawal planned by Day 50 of the ceasefire. The debated issue of Israel’s long-term presence in the corridor has been a sticking point in negotiations, with Hamas advocating for complete withdrawal.
Simultaneously, the Rafah Crossing into Egypt will be reopened to facilitate the evacuation of injured and ill Palestinians, including a limited number of wounded fighters, but only after all female hostages, including soldiers, have been released.
An Israeli source indicated that troop reductions in Gaza will not occur during the first 42 days, only reallocations of forces. They also noted that if a satisfactory Phase 2 agreement is reached with Hamas that aligns with Israel’s war objectives, including the dismantling of the group, a continued presence in the corridor could remain.
Humanitarian assistance is increasing significantly, with hundreds of trucks carrying food, medicine, construction supplies, and fuel now entering Gaza daily, a development that has already commenced.
The urgent demand for such aid is profound. The population is facing malnutrition and widespread illness, with hospitals suffering from damage and severe shortages of necessary supplies. However, the delivery of this aid could encounter challenges, particularly as Israel has enforced restrictions on certain materials that could potentially benefit Hamas militarily.
In addition, the Israeli government is pursuing a strategy to eliminate the operations of UNRWA, the primary aid agency in Gaza, and intends to sever ties with the organization.
Looking ahead to Phase 2, the framework of the agreement aims for the release of all remaining hostages alongside a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, leading to a state of “sustainable calm.” However, this exchange is intertwined with more complex issues.
Israel insists that it will not consent to a full retreat until the military and political capabilities of Hamas are dismantled. Conversely, Hamas has stated that it will not release the last hostages until Israeli forces completely exit Gaza. Thus, both sides face the need to establish a governance plan for Gaza. Hamas has indicated a willingness to relinquish control but may still seek a role in any future administration, a proposition that Israel staunchly opposes. Additionally, Hamas is not expected to disarm. Israel has also dismissed the alternative of having the Palestinian Authority take over governance in Gaza.
Should all parties reach a third phase, it is likely to be less controversial, with the bodies of remaining hostages exchanged for a multi-year reconstruction initiative in Gaza, although the funding for this reconstruction remains uncertain.
