BEIJING — A growing number of nations around the world are grappling with the dual challenges of declining birthrates and an aging population. As younger generations increasingly opt for smaller families, advancements in healthcare have led to increased life expectancy, creating notable demographic shifts.
Recently, China revealed that its population experienced a decline for the third consecutive year, dropping by nearly 1.4 million to reach 1.408 billion in 2024. This trend is mirrored in neighboring Asian countries. Japan has seen its population decrease for the past 15 years, while South Korea recorded negative growth beginning in 2021. In Italy, births have fallen below 400,000 for the first time since the 1800s.
According to the United Nations, the populations of 63 nations and regions have already peaked, with about half of those located in Europe. The U.N. anticipates that an additional 48 countries will reach their population peak within the next three decades. However, the global population, currently at 8.2 billion, is still on an upward trajectory, with estimates suggesting it could rise to 10.3 billion in approximately 60 years before beginning to decline.
In response to these alarming trends, many governments in countries with shrinking populations are introducing financial incentives in an effort to encourage citizens to have more children, with the hope of supporting an increasing elderly demographic. Japan, for example, has seen its population decrease by 3 million since 2008, prompting officials to label the demographic situation as critical. The government is particularly focused on the next six years as an opportunity to potentially reverse the trend.
Japan’s population peaked at 128 million in 2008 but has since decreased to 125 million, with births falling to a record low of 730,000 in 2023. Surveys indicate that younger Japanese adults are more hesitant to marry or have children due to challenging job prospects, rising living costs that outpace wages, and a corporate environment that can be unaccommodating to women and working mothers. Projections suggest Japan’s population could decline to 87 million by 2070, with a significant portion of that demographic being elderly.
In contrast, foreign residents in Japan have seen a surge, rising by 11% and exceeding 3 million for the first time in 2023, now accounting for nearly 3% of the total population.
Meanwhile, in China, the country is confronting similar aging issues which could hinder economic growth while presenting challenges for a shrinking workforce tasked with supporting an increasing elderly populace. Some entrepreneurs view it as a growth opportunity; for instance, an “elderly university” in Beijing has begun offering a variety of classes for older individuals, though it has yet to reach profitability. The country is also raising the retirement age gradually over the next 15 years and has shifted its focus from its earlier one-child policy, now allowing families to have up to three children. Despite these adjustments, the number of births continues to decline, with projections indicating a drop to 1.3 billion by 2050.
In Italy, population concerns have prompted government initiatives bolstered by the Vatican’s support. Pope Francis has repeatedly encouraged Italians to embrace family life and have more children to counter what he terms as a demographic winter affecting various developed nations. The current Italian government aims for 500,000 births annually by 2033; however, recent statistics show a steady decline from around 577,000 births in 2008 to just 380,000 in 2023—the first instance of births falling below 400,000 since unification.
Factors contributing to this decline include limited access to affordable childcare, stagnant wages, and social traditions that often see women responsible for elder care.
South Korea’s population saw a minor rebound in 2023, largely due to an increase in foreign residents, while the birthrate continues to plummet. Many young South Koreans are reluctant to have children in the face of exorbitant childcare costs and a highly competitive educational framework, alongside a societal structure that often places childcare responsibilities primarily on women. The number of foreign residents rose by 10% to reach 1.9 million, thanks in part to a recent extension of a work visa program, barely enabling the total population to increase by 0.2% to 51.8 million people. Currently, 9.5 million residents are aged 65 or older, raising concerns about labor shortages and the financial sustainability of government services amid a shrinking working population.
