CAIRO — Should the current draft of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented, the fighting in Gaza would cease for 42 days. This includes the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. In this initial phase, Israeli forces are expected to retreat to the periphery of Gaza, allowing many displaced Palestinians to return to what is left of their homes amid increased aid deliveries.

The durability of this ceasefire, however, hinges on subsequent negotiations anticipated to take place in a few weeks. In these discussions, involving Israel, Hamas, and mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, they will need to address the governance of Gaza while Israel insists on the dismantling of Hamas.

If no agreement is reached within the 42-day timeframe to initiate a second phase, Israel may resume military operations aimed at dismantling Hamas, which would still have hostages in its custody. According to two officials, Hamas is on board with the ceasefire draft, though Israeli sources mentioned ongoing talks regarding specific terms, meaning modifications might occur or the entire arrangement could collapse.

**Hostage and Prisoner Exchanges**

During the initial phase, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in return for the release of hundreds of Palestinians detained by Israel. By the close of this phase, all living women, children, and elderly individuals held by Hamas should be freed. There are approximately 100 hostages remaining in Gaza, a mix of civilians and military personnel, with estimates suggesting that at least a third may have already died.

On the first day of the ceasefire, Hamas is set to free three hostages, followed by four more on the seventh day, with additional hostages released weekly thereafter. Determining the specific hostages to be released alongside the number of Palestinians is intricate. The initial count of 33 will mainly consist of women, children, and individuals over 50, but it also includes commitments to release all female soldiers. Priority will be given to living hostages, but if the number falls short, deceased bodies will be provided instead. Some hostages may not be under Hamas’s control, complicating efforts with other militant groups.

In exchange, for each civilian hostage freed, Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners, while each female soldier will result in the release of 50 prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences. If Hamas hands over deceased individuals, Israel will release all women and children detained since hostilities erupted on October 7, 2023. However, many male detainees, including soldiers, would still await the second phase for their release.

**Israeli Troop Withdrawal and Palestinian Returns**

Under the proposed agreement, Israeli troops are to retreat to a buffer zone roughly a kilometer wide along Gaza’s borders. This development would allow Palestinians displaced by the conflict to return to their homes, notably in Gaza City and northern regions. Given the dire conditions of crowded tent camps, there is a strong desire among Palestinians to return home, despite significant property destruction caused by the military campaign.

However, challenges remain. Over the past year of discussions, Israel has maintained that it must oversee the movement of Palestinians returning northward to prevent Hamas from rearming. Throughout the conflict, the Israeli military has effectively isolated northern Gaza, establishing the so-called Netzarim Corridor that restricted the movement of people fleeing. The ceasefire draft indicates that Israel will vacate this corridor, initially withdrawing from the main coastal road and ultimately clearing out entirely within 22 days.

Nevertheless, an Israeli official indicated that they plan to retain control over Netzarim during the return of Palestinians, necessitating inspections, though specifics were not shared due to the confidentiality of ongoing negotiations. Resolving these conflicting positions could lead to tensions. Additionally, Israel will maintain control over the Philadelphi Corridor bordering Egypt, including the Rafah Crossing, as Hamas has withdrawn demands for further Israeli military withdrawal from this area.

**Humanitarian Assistance**

During the initial phase of the ceasefire, the ingress of humanitarian aid into Gaza is set to significantly increase, with hundreds of trucks carrying food, medicine, and essentials entering daily. This enhanced flow of aid comes amidst a humanitarian crisis exacerbated by previous Israeli restrictions and widespread theft of aid supplies.

The need for assistance is critical, with rampant malnutrition and disease among the displaced populations. The draft agreement stipulates the entrance of supplies to construct shelters for the tens of thousands left without homes and to rebuild crucial infrastructure, including electricity and sewage systems.

However, the successful implementation of humanitarian aid still poses challenges. Historically, Israel has limited the entry of specific materials, citing potential military applications. Ongoing talks over aid distribution and reconstruction are still unresolved, with a goal to ensure Hamas does not play any role in these processes. Israel’s government has also been firm on prohibiting the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating within Gaza, which complicates matters, as the agency serves millions of Palestinian refugees.

**Looking Ahead to Phase Two**

If the first phase unfolds successfully, the focus will shift to negotiations for the second phase on Day 16 of the ceasefire. This phase suggests that all remaining hostages would be released in exchange for Israel’s total withdrawal from Gaza and an established, ongoing peace. However, this exchange brings larger questions into play.

Israel has made it clear it will not support a complete exit from Gaza until Hamas’s military and political structures are dismantled, while Hamas insists it will not give up its remaining hostages until Israel completely withdraws. Thus, discussions must also determine an acceptable governance structure for Gaza. Hamas may be pressured to concede control, while aiming to retain influence in any future political setup—a condition firmly contested by Israel.

The draft indicates that an agreement for this second stage must be concluded by the end of the first phase. Both parties face pressure to finalize their commitments, but failure to do so could lead to several possible scenarios. Hamas has sought written assurances for the continuation of the ceasefire, ultimately settling for verbal commitments from mediators.

Meanwhile, Israel has not offered any guarantees, leaving open the prospect of renewed military action. Should communication falter, it could trigger further attacks or a return to hostilities. Nonetheless, Hamas and its mediators hope the positive momentum generated in the first phase will deter such escalations. There is considerable risk involved, as an aggressive resurgence could jeopardize the fate of existing hostages, straining public opinion against Israeli leadership.

In a broader scope, the anticipated third phase may center around a less contentious element: the return of hostages’ bodies in exchange for a long-term reconstruction initiative in Gaza under international oversight lasting three to five years.