LAS VEGAS — Ohio State concluded its regular season on a controversial note, facing scrutiny about its future under coach Ryan Day following a narrow 13-10 loss to rival Michigan on November 30. However, the Buckeyes have made a remarkable turnaround, qualifying for the College Football Playoff national championship game against Notre Dame, scheduled for January 20 in Atlanta. Remarkably, Ohio State is currently among the top two favorites in the title game since the playoff’s inception a decade ago.
BetMGM Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook both have Ohio State as a 9 ½ point favorite as of Saturday. This spread is notable, especially compared to the largest line historically, which favored Georgia by 13 ½ over TCU two years ago—a game that ended in a resounding 65-7 victory for the Bulldogs. Previously, Alabama was favored by nine points against Ohio State in 2019, resulting in a 52-24 loss for the Buckeyes.
Renowned CBS SportsLine analyst Bruce Marshall expressed skepticism regarding the current matchup, suggesting that it won’t mirror outcomes like those in previous championship games. “The spread is way too high,” he commented. “I don’t believe Ohio State will overpower Notre Dame unless extraordinary circumstances arise.”
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars, noted that the initial wave of betting has skewed toward Notre Dame, which is somewhat unexpected given Ohio State’s previous betting momentum over the last three weeks. He anticipates a slight adjustment in the line favoring Notre Dame as the game approaches, predicting a more methodical pace in the national championship matchup.
Seamus Magee, the trading manager at BetMGM, described the early betting activity as “very balanced,” with a slight edge toward Ohio State’s money line but acknowledging notable interest in Notre Dame. He mentioned that the betting book anticipates needing an outright victory from the Buckeyes, which would also be beneficial from a futures standpoint.
Ohio State has demonstrated strong form throughout the playoff rounds, achieving convincing victories over Tennessee (42-17) and defeating the previously undefeated top-seeded Oregon team 41-21 in a match that could have been much wider in margin. Their semifinal game against Texas yielded a 28-14 win, but the final score belied the drama involved. The Longhorns had a crucial opportunity to tie the game with a first-and-goal, only to be thwarted by a resilient Buckeye defense and a pivotal strip-sack by Jack Sawyer, which he returned for an 83-yard touchdown.
Marshall reflected on Ohio State’s fortune in that game, particularly criticizing Texas’s play-call during a critical second down at the goal line. “If they had scored on that play, it could have changed everything,” he remarked.
Notre Dame’s path to the championship has seen them overcome various challenges, including wins against Indiana (27-17), Georgia (23-10), and Penn State (27-24).
“We witnessed Notre Dame’s speed in their matchup against Penn State; they’re not lacking in speed at all,” Marshall noted, further highlighting that the Irish have successfully covered the last 11 point spreads and stand 22-6 against the spread dating back to last season.
“I genuinely believe Notre Dame has what it takes to win,” Marshall concluded.
