Washington (12-5) will face Tampa Bay (10-7) this Sunday at 8 p.m. EST on NBC, with the Buccaneers favored by 3 points. The all-time series is knotted at 13-13, although Washington has the edge in regular-season encounters, winning 12 of 23, while the Buccaneers lead 2-1 in playoff matchups. Both teams have solid performances against the spread, with Washington at 10-6-1 and Tampa Bay at 10-7. Their last face-off was on September 8, when Tampa Bay came out on top with a 37-20 victory. Last week, the Commanders secured a narrow win over the Cowboys, defeating them 23-19, while the Buccaneers also triumphed, taking down the Saints 27-19.
Examining the offenses, the Commanders rank 7th overall, notably 3rd in rushing, but have struggled in the passing game, placing 17th. They rank 5th in scoring. On the defensive side, Washington is 13th overall and has significant weaknesses in the rushing defense, holding the 30th rank, while standing strong in pass defense at 3rd. Tampa Bay’s offense holds a strong overall ranking of 3rd, with their rushing attack coming in 4th, pass attack also at 3rd, and scoring 4th. However, their defense has not performed as well, ranking 18th overall and 29th against the pass, despite an impressive 4th place in rushing defense.
A key player for Washington is quarterback Jayden Daniels, who will be up against Todd Bowles’ defense, which has not been its usual formidable self. Daniels has the opportunity to exploit weaknesses within a defensive line that has faltered in generating pressure from edge rushers and a secondary that only captured seven interceptions throughout the regular season. His ability to use both his legs and arms can give the Buccaneers a difficult challenge.
On the other side, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield aims to make a notable impact. After signing a $100 million contract in the offseason, he has proven to be a reliable quarterback, achieving career highs in passing yards (4,500) and touchdowns (41) while completing passes at a rate of 71.4%. This playoff year follows a successful previous season where the Buccaneers won a postseason game but faced elimination in the subsequent divisional round. If Mayfield performs at his best, Tampa Bay could become an even more formidable opponent.
A noteworthy matchup will be between Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans and Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore, historic rivals who previously clashed four years ago when Lattimore was a member of the New Orleans Saints. In their last encounter, Lattimore limited Evans to just one catch but it was a crucial touchdown for Tampa Bay. Evans has just recorded his 11th consecutive season with over 1,000 receiving yards, now tying Jerry Rice’s record, while Lattimore is expected to return from an aggravated hamstring injury.
In the realm of injuries, the Commanders anticipate the return of Lattimore and center Tyler Biadasz, who missed the previous game with an ankle issue. Coach Dan Quinn expressed that he isn’t worried about quarterback Daniels’ leg soreness that led to his substitution during the game against Dallas. For Tampa Bay, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. looks to be making his comeback after an absence due to a knee injury, although the statuses of tight end Cade Otton and cornerback Jamel Dean remain uncertain as both have also been battling injuries.
This upcoming playoff matchup represents Washington’s ninth in the 21st century, with their fourth match against Tampa Bay, including their last encounter on January 9, 2021, where the Buccaneers triumphed in the wild-card round en route to their Super Bowl victory. Washington’s last playoff win came against Tampa Bay in the 2005 season. Interestingly, Bowles played the majority of his NFL career with Washington and was part of the team that clinched the Super Bowl title in 1987.
In terms of individual statistics, Daniels set records as a rookie, completing 69% of his passes and rushing for an impressive 891 yards, showcasing his dual-threat capabilities. The Commanders’ running backs combined for lackluster rushing performances towards the end of the regular season. On the receiver front, Terry McLaurin broke franchise records with 13 touchdown catches while tight end Zach Ertz also had a productive season.
On the Buccaneers’ roster, Evans consistently beats defenders, boasting 31 receptions against Washington, with a high average of 21.5 yards per catch. Rookie running back Bucky Irving has emerged as the team’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015, while fellow rookie Jalen McMillan has been on a scoring streak with a touchdown catch in five straight games. Tampa Bay has shown impressive performance post-week 11, boasting a remarkable offensive output while minimizing opponents’ yardage and scoring.
